Nevermind the Bizarro Bruins- we'll get to them in another post. What the hell is going on in the rest of the playoffs?
I'm not saying that I'm an all-knowing and infallible playoff picker, but in the past I've always been damn good at it. Usually I only get a few series wrong throughout the entire playoffs. Technically I've only gotten one wrong so far, but many series in this first round are on the verge of embarrassing me further.
Let's first look at the series I got dead wrong: Philly and New Jersey. I thought that it would be a close series that could potentially go either way, but in the end said Devils over Flyers in 7 games. This was because I value goaltending over scoring in the playoffs, at least when the matchup is close. Of course, in order for my prediction to be true, New Jersey would have to actually get good goaltending, and that didn't happen. Brodeur allowed 15 goals in 5 games and managed a measley .881 SV%, despite facing the fewest shots against per game in the playoffs. Philadelphia, on the other hand, held up their end of the bargain (despite, I suppose, getting the fewest shots FOR per game in the playoffs). Basically, Brodeur shit the bed. Worse than that, he made me look bad. Worse still than that, he was nominated for the Vezina over Tuukka.
Sidetrack: WTF NHL? I understand not giving Tuukka the Vezina. Ryan Miller should win it. But he had the best goaltending numbers in the league- how could you not nominate him? And how in god's name did you pass him over for the Calder? And why isn't Patrice up for the Selke? Even the Wreck doesn't agree with that last one.
I was confident that Chicago would completely whoop Nashville's ass, potentially even sweeping them. The series is now tied at 2, which isn't a total disaster, but it's not what it should be. Chicago played more like themselves in Game 4, but before that they were genuinely being dominated by the Preds. The only explanation I can offer is that they weren't playing very well, which isn't particularly enlightening. I also sold Nashville short. They defied predictions with relentless effort, likely throwing the Blackhawks off their game. I still believe Chicago will recover, and Nashville may have won its last game, but you have to commend them.
I suppose "WTF?" was an overreaction, as those are really the only two series that have gone strangely (besides the obvious). I'm looking forward to the conclusion of the first round, and the start of the second.
Showing posts with label 2010 playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 playoffs. Show all posts
April 23, 2010
April 15, 2010
First Round Predictions
Here are my 2010 playoff predictions! As I said in my last post, I very rationally picked Buffalo over Boston in 7. Bear Hat, however, picked ACTIVATE. So it all cancels out.
Washington isn't as solid as they appear, as they're dangerously offense-heavy. Can they overcome Jaroslav Halak and his .924 save%? Yes. Montreal appears to be better defensively, but it's all smoke and goaltending. They let up more shots per game than Washington (and most other teams in the league). They can't score at even strength, and while the Caps don't have a very good PK, they're the one team that had a better powerplay than the Habs.
WASHINGTON in 5: The Habs have an advantage in nothing.
NEW JERSEY (2ND) vs. PHILADELPHIA (7TH)
Philadelphia isn't all bad. They don't have goaltending (due to injuries and general lack of stopping the puck) and therefore allow more goals, but when it come to the Devils, who doesn't? The Flyers score more, have better special teams, and are much, much more physical (league leading 80 majors this year). New Jersey is a better team, but not insurmountably so, especially given the difference in style of play. Basically it's goaltending vs scoring and being a huge steaming pile of douche, as Briere, Hartnell, Carcillo and Pronger are wont to do.
NEW JERSEY in 7: Never underestimate the importance of goaltending (and classiness) in the playoffs.
PITTSBURGH (4TH) vs. OTTAWA (5TH)
After watching the Versus announcers, as Paula put it, "sucking off the Pens" for the whole game last night, I don't even want to preview this. Pittsburgh is not "a top team in the East" as they would have you think, and last night wasn't "a rough night for Fleury". The Pens were 27th in the league in SV% (Fleury had a .905) and 20th in GA. They have offense, but somehow no powerplay. They take more penalties but less majors than Ottawa, which basically means they're a bunch of Savvy-killing punks* that should be knocked out (of the playoffs, but also literally) as soon as possible.
PITTSBURGH in 7: God do I not want to see Pittsburgh win, and therefore the entire Versus studio simultaneously get off. But Ottawa is that bad.
*Jordan Staal is ok.
This is the only series in which one team has the edge in literally everything. San Jose has a better record, WRA, GF, GA, PP%, PK%, SV%, shots for, and shots against. Only one or two of these stats are even close. However, Colorado has something- something intangible, something that gives them the ability to fight and claw their way to victories. You could call it youth, excitement, the desire to forge an identity as post-Joe Sakic Avs, but I think it's best described as "not being San Jose". I mean, seriously, San Jose? You can't win game one at home? The Sharks got three shots in the 2nd period last night. Three.
COLORADO in 6: Let's not ruin Joe Thornton's playoff streak.
CHICAGO (2ND) vs. NASHVILLE (7TH)
As I said in a previous post, Chicago has decent-ish goaltending at best, but they don't need any better than that, at least not against Nashville. The Hawks let up 25 shots/game, enabling a team that's 23rd in SV% to be 5th in GA. They also get an incredible 34 shots/game themselves. Nashville is mediocre to bad in everything. They have a slight edge in goaltending (16th), but that's all. The Preds also aren't feisty enough to overcome any of this.
CHICAGO in 4: If anyone's going to sweep, it's the Blackhawks.
VANCOUVER (3RD) vs. LOS ANGELES (6TH)
Any team with Ryan Smyth is sure to have some spunk, at the very least when he's on the ice. However, Vancouver is good, and that isn't just the setup to a hilarious joke. They really are good. The Canucks can actually score this year. In fact, their offense has been better than their defense and goaltending, which leads me to believe that they'll be even better in the playoffs. Luongo will improve on his regular season .913 SV%, and if the Sedins keep it up, Vancouver could reasonably be a top contender for the Cup.
VANCOUVER in 6: LA will put up a good fight, but they're no match for Swedish twins and the Italian Stallion.
PHOENIX (4TH) vs. DETROIT (5TH)
Phoenix is a bit like the Bruins, in that they can't score and rely very, very heavily on their goaltender. They're bad at everything offensive and good at everything defensive. Detroit, on the other hand, is respectable in every category. This probably gives the edge to the Red Wings, even though they've had the exact same team for 7-8 years now. Phoenix has a bit more spark to them, though not as much youth as one would expect. The only notable young gun I can pick out is Keith Yandle, who, despite being from Boston gave the most Canadian-sounding interview I've ever heard last night. Promising.
DETROIT in 7: I don't believe enough in Bryzgalov to bet the series on his goaltending, especially over that of Jimmy Howard.
EAST
WASHINGTON (1ST) vs. MONTREAL (8TH)Washington isn't as solid as they appear, as they're dangerously offense-heavy. Can they overcome Jaroslav Halak and his .924 save%? Yes. Montreal appears to be better defensively, but it's all smoke and goaltending. They let up more shots per game than Washington (and most other teams in the league). They can't score at even strength, and while the Caps don't have a very good PK, they're the one team that had a better powerplay than the Habs.
WASHINGTON in 5: The Habs have an advantage in nothing.
NEW JERSEY (2ND) vs. PHILADELPHIA (7TH)
Philadelphia isn't all bad. They don't have goaltending (due to injuries and general lack of stopping the puck) and therefore allow more goals, but when it come to the Devils, who doesn't? The Flyers score more, have better special teams, and are much, much more physical (league leading 80 majors this year). New Jersey is a better team, but not insurmountably so, especially given the difference in style of play. Basically it's goaltending vs scoring and being a huge steaming pile of douche, as Briere, Hartnell, Carcillo and Pronger are wont to do.
NEW JERSEY in 7: Never underestimate the importance of goaltending (and classiness) in the playoffs.
PITTSBURGH (4TH) vs. OTTAWA (5TH)
After watching the Versus announcers, as Paula put it, "sucking off the Pens" for the whole game last night, I don't even want to preview this. Pittsburgh is not "a top team in the East" as they would have you think, and last night wasn't "a rough night for Fleury". The Pens were 27th in the league in SV% (Fleury had a .905) and 20th in GA. They have offense, but somehow no powerplay. They take more penalties but less majors than Ottawa, which basically means they're a bunch of Savvy-killing punks* that should be knocked out (of the playoffs, but also literally) as soon as possible.
PITTSBURGH in 7: God do I not want to see Pittsburgh win, and therefore the entire Versus studio simultaneously get off. But Ottawa is that bad.
*Jordan Staal is ok.
WEST
SAN JOSE (1ST) vs. COLORADO (8TH)This is the only series in which one team has the edge in literally everything. San Jose has a better record, WRA, GF, GA, PP%, PK%, SV%, shots for, and shots against. Only one or two of these stats are even close. However, Colorado has something- something intangible, something that gives them the ability to fight and claw their way to victories. You could call it youth, excitement, the desire to forge an identity as post-Joe Sakic Avs, but I think it's best described as "not being San Jose". I mean, seriously, San Jose? You can't win game one at home? The Sharks got three shots in the 2nd period last night. Three.
COLORADO in 6: Let's not ruin Joe Thornton's playoff streak.
CHICAGO (2ND) vs. NASHVILLE (7TH)
As I said in a previous post, Chicago has decent-ish goaltending at best, but they don't need any better than that, at least not against Nashville. The Hawks let up 25 shots/game, enabling a team that's 23rd in SV% to be 5th in GA. They also get an incredible 34 shots/game themselves. Nashville is mediocre to bad in everything. They have a slight edge in goaltending (16th), but that's all. The Preds also aren't feisty enough to overcome any of this.
CHICAGO in 4: If anyone's going to sweep, it's the Blackhawks.
VANCOUVER (3RD) vs. LOS ANGELES (6TH)
Any team with Ryan Smyth is sure to have some spunk, at the very least when he's on the ice. However, Vancouver is good, and that isn't just the setup to a hilarious joke. They really are good. The Canucks can actually score this year. In fact, their offense has been better than their defense and goaltending, which leads me to believe that they'll be even better in the playoffs. Luongo will improve on his regular season .913 SV%, and if the Sedins keep it up, Vancouver could reasonably be a top contender for the Cup.
VANCOUVER in 6: LA will put up a good fight, but they're no match for Swedish twins and the Italian Stallion.
PHOENIX (4TH) vs. DETROIT (5TH)
Phoenix is a bit like the Bruins, in that they can't score and rely very, very heavily on their goaltender. They're bad at everything offensive and good at everything defensive. Detroit, on the other hand, is respectable in every category. This probably gives the edge to the Red Wings, even though they've had the exact same team for 7-8 years now. Phoenix has a bit more spark to them, though not as much youth as one would expect. The only notable young gun I can pick out is Keith Yandle, who, despite being from Boston gave the most Canadian-sounding interview I've ever heard last night. Promising.
DETROIT in 7: I don't believe enough in Bryzgalov to bet the series on his goaltending, especially over that of Jimmy Howard.
Buffalo (3rd) vs. BOSTON (6th)
Buffalo: 45-27-10 (100 points)
Boston: 39-30-13 (91 points)
First thing's first: Will anyone score a powerplay goal in this series? Buffalo and Boston are 17th and 23rd in PP% respectively, while 2nd and 3rd in PK%. They're also tied for first in save percentage. After that stunning display against Carolina this past weekend, I'd almost feel more comfortable shorthanded than up a man.
Penalties themselves are interesting. Buffalo takes fewer overall, but takes more minor penalties than Boston and far fewer majors. The Sabres' relative lack of physicality could be an advantage for the Bruins, if they choose to play with fire. That's always a question mark. They need to attack fast, hard, and get as many shots as possible. Buffalo let up more goals than the Bruins this year because they let up more shots. If we keep pestering him, Ryan Miller will give one up.
Bruins fans or stats freaks out there might be saying, "The Bruins get a lot of shots each game already, and it doesn't help", to which I must reply: yes. This is true. They have the worst shooting percentage in the league. Many of their shots come from the point or out high, especially on the powerplay. They allow themselves to be intimidated by opposing players and doubt themselves, hesitating a second too long. They make one too many passes far too often. To win games in the playoffs, they have to solve this problem.
Players like Blake Wheeler, Milan Lucic, and Michael Ryder need to come up big. Rides and Milan are both at their best in the slot, sniping through the traffic in front. Square Wheels can create offense from the neutral zone, if he can just round out his wheels. The Bruins need him to create more chances, if not to score, than at least to wear down their defense. Krejci, Patrice, Sturm, and Recchi do more than their part driving to the net, crashing, and working it down low. It's these things that make the difference. Without constant pressure low in the zone, we can't possibly expect shooting lanes for our de. Zard, while leading the team in shots, has a 2.9 shooting%, good for 187th among defensemen. Many of his shots don't even make it to the net. If our forwards control the puck deep in the zone, it opens up space at the point.
Goaltending is the highlight of this series. Both Miller and Tuukka will make goals very hard to come by. This could be another advantage for the Bruins- they can't score anyway, so Buffalo might as well not. Low scoring games mean anything can happen. Everyone (read: Versus) will be talking about Tuukka's lack of experience, but Tuukka can handle himself. If we make it past this round, it will be because of him and his leg terror.
A major concern is injuries. Our de is severely crippled, while they have several forwards still listed as day-to-day. Injuries not reported are also interesting. Vanek was out very recently, and could still be hurting. We know Zard and Milan are, but it's hard not to wonder about a player like Mark Recchi. How are his old bones doing? He seemed to be hobbling more than usual in the last few games of the season. At this time of year, nearly everyone is hurt in one way or another, but it could really handicap whichever team is worse off. I believe that injuries are what undid the Bruins against Carolina last year. Maybe this year we'll get lucky.
Prediction: The Bruins can win "if this" or "if that". Yes, that means they can do it, but "ifs" are a red flag when making predictions. My head says Buffalo in 7. My heart says Boston in 7. Bear hat says ACTIVATE.
Boston: 39-30-13 (91 points)
First thing's first: Will anyone score a powerplay goal in this series? Buffalo and Boston are 17th and 23rd in PP% respectively, while 2nd and 3rd in PK%. They're also tied for first in save percentage. After that stunning display against Carolina this past weekend, I'd almost feel more comfortable shorthanded than up a man.
Penalties themselves are interesting. Buffalo takes fewer overall, but takes more minor penalties than Boston and far fewer majors. The Sabres' relative lack of physicality could be an advantage for the Bruins, if they choose to play with fire. That's always a question mark. They need to attack fast, hard, and get as many shots as possible. Buffalo let up more goals than the Bruins this year because they let up more shots. If we keep pestering him, Ryan Miller will give one up.
Bruins fans or stats freaks out there might be saying, "The Bruins get a lot of shots each game already, and it doesn't help", to which I must reply: yes. This is true. They have the worst shooting percentage in the league. Many of their shots come from the point or out high, especially on the powerplay. They allow themselves to be intimidated by opposing players and doubt themselves, hesitating a second too long. They make one too many passes far too often. To win games in the playoffs, they have to solve this problem.
Players like Blake Wheeler, Milan Lucic, and Michael Ryder need to come up big. Rides and Milan are both at their best in the slot, sniping through the traffic in front. Square Wheels can create offense from the neutral zone, if he can just round out his wheels. The Bruins need him to create more chances, if not to score, than at least to wear down their defense. Krejci, Patrice, Sturm, and Recchi do more than their part driving to the net, crashing, and working it down low. It's these things that make the difference. Without constant pressure low in the zone, we can't possibly expect shooting lanes for our de. Zard, while leading the team in shots, has a 2.9 shooting%, good for 187th among defensemen. Many of his shots don't even make it to the net. If our forwards control the puck deep in the zone, it opens up space at the point.
Goaltending is the highlight of this series. Both Miller and Tuukka will make goals very hard to come by. This could be another advantage for the Bruins- they can't score anyway, so Buffalo might as well not. Low scoring games mean anything can happen. Everyone (read: Versus) will be talking about Tuukka's lack of experience, but Tuukka can handle himself. If we make it past this round, it will be because of him and his leg terror.
A major concern is injuries. Our de is severely crippled, while they have several forwards still listed as day-to-day. Injuries not reported are also interesting. Vanek was out very recently, and could still be hurting. We know Zard and Milan are, but it's hard not to wonder about a player like Mark Recchi. How are his old bones doing? He seemed to be hobbling more than usual in the last few games of the season. At this time of year, nearly everyone is hurt in one way or another, but it could really handicap whichever team is worse off. I believe that injuries are what undid the Bruins against Carolina last year. Maybe this year we'll get lucky.
Prediction: The Bruins can win "if this" or "if that". Yes, that means they can do it, but "ifs" are a red flag when making predictions. My head says Buffalo in 7. My heart says Boston in 7. Bear hat says ACTIVATE.
April 14, 2010
Paula's Predictions for 4/14
The 2010 NHL post season kicks off this evening and here are my predictions for tonight's matchups.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4)/Ottawa Senators (5): Pens. Do I even need to explain myself? I'm still trying to figure out how the Sens even landed themself in the fifth playoff spot. Maybe I'll eat my words. We'll see.
New Jersey Devils (2)/Philadelphia Flyers (7): Devils. Don't get me wrong- because I think this series is going to be a tough one for the Devils due to the Flyer's physical style of play. I just think that with the opening game of the series being in Jersey, they will have the edge tonight.
Detroit Redwings (5)/Phoenix Coyotes (4): Redwings. The Coyotes have had a standout season and I'm still confused about it. Needless to say, they're somewhat of a Cinderella story. They even had some sell-outs. But I digress. The Redwings had somewhat of a disappointing season but they will start off with a clean slate and use their experience and talented squad of Swedes to steal one in Phoenix tonight.
And finally... the game I'm most excited about,
San Jose Sharks (1) / Colorado Avalanche (8): Well well well. Look what we have here. The Sharks have the number one seed. I say the Avs take this one. And if not this game, the series. I have zero faith in the Sharks. As Mike Millbury so eloquently said, "Hey Thornton, wipe that silly grin off your face. It's playoff time."
Pittsburgh Penguins (4)/Ottawa Senators (5): Pens. Do I even need to explain myself? I'm still trying to figure out how the Sens even landed themself in the fifth playoff spot. Maybe I'll eat my words. We'll see.
New Jersey Devils (2)/Philadelphia Flyers (7): Devils. Don't get me wrong- because I think this series is going to be a tough one for the Devils due to the Flyer's physical style of play. I just think that with the opening game of the series being in Jersey, they will have the edge tonight.
Detroit Redwings (5)/Phoenix Coyotes (4): Redwings. The Coyotes have had a standout season and I'm still confused about it. Needless to say, they're somewhat of a Cinderella story. They even had some sell-outs. But I digress. The Redwings had somewhat of a disappointing season but they will start off with a clean slate and use their experience and talented squad of Swedes to steal one in Phoenix tonight.
And finally... the game I'm most excited about,
San Jose Sharks (1) / Colorado Avalanche (8): Well well well. Look what we have here. The Sharks have the number one seed. I say the Avs take this one. And if not this game, the series. I have zero faith in the Sharks. As Mike Millbury so eloquently said, "Hey Thornton, wipe that silly grin off your face. It's playoff time."
April 12, 2010
WRAP: Playoff Team Rankings
To recap: the end of the year statistic I do also incorporates conference rank. So the formula is:
(2GF+2GA+PP+PK+SV%+CONF RK)/8
1. San Jose (4.63)
2. Buffalo (6.13)
3. Chicago (7.63)
4. Vancouver (8.38)
5. New Jersey (9.00)
6. Detroit (9.25)
7. Washington (9.38)
8. Philadelphia (10.75)
9. Los Angeles (10.88)
10. Phoenix (11.88)
11. Boston (12.13)
12. Montreal (12.25)
13. Colorado (12.50)
14. Pittsburgh (13.13)
15. Ottawa (15.75)
16. Nashville (17.38)
Thank GOD the Bruins didn't get Washington, right? Yes, they have the best offense in the NHL. They scored 45 more goals than the next highest scoring team (Vancouver). However, they may have gotten some help from their division. The Southeast has such defensive gems as Florida (19th in GA), Atlanta (25th), Carolina (26th), and Tampa Bay (27th). Washington scored 4.17 goals a game against its division and 3.67 against everyone else. That being said, 3.67 goals a game would still lead the league.
There's only one lower seeded team that has a higher score on this than their opponent (Detroit over Phoenix) but that doesn't mean it's that simple. I'll do predictions whenever I finally get around to it!
(2GF+2GA+PP+PK+SV%+CONF RK)/8
1. San Jose (4.63)
2. Buffalo (6.13)
3. Chicago (7.63)
4. Vancouver (8.38)
5. New Jersey (9.00)
6. Detroit (9.25)
7. Washington (9.38)
8. Philadelphia (10.75)
9. Los Angeles (10.88)
10. Phoenix (11.88)
11. Boston (12.13)
12. Montreal (12.25)
13. Colorado (12.50)
14. Pittsburgh (13.13)
15. Ottawa (15.75)
16. Nashville (17.38)
Thank GOD the Bruins didn't get Washington, right? Yes, they have the best offense in the NHL. They scored 45 more goals than the next highest scoring team (Vancouver). However, they may have gotten some help from their division. The Southeast has such defensive gems as Florida (19th in GA), Atlanta (25th), Carolina (26th), and Tampa Bay (27th). Washington scored 4.17 goals a game against its division and 3.67 against everyone else. That being said, 3.67 goals a game would still lead the league.
There's only one lower seeded team that has a higher score on this than their opponent (Detroit over Phoenix) but that doesn't mean it's that simple. I'll do predictions whenever I finally get around to it!
March 29, 2010
WRA 3/29 and playoff picture thoughts
WRA RANKING (SCORE): CONF. RANKING +/-
1. San Jose (4.71): 1st +49
2. Buffalo (6.86): 3rd +25
3. Vancouver (7.86): 3rd +49
4. Chicago (9.14): 2nd +50
5. Detroit (9.71): 6th +10
6. Washington (10.86): 1st +78
7. Colorado (11.14): 8th +18
7. New Jersey (11.14): 4th +20
9. BOSTON (11.86):8th +2
9. Los Angeles (11.86): 7th +17
11. Philadelphia (12.00): 6th +11
12. Phoenix (12.57): 4th +23
13. Montreal (13.00): 7th -4
14. St. Louis (14.14): 10th -2
15. Pittsburgh (14.29): 2nd +20
16. NY Rangers (14.71): 10th -6
17. Calgary (16.00): 9th +1
18. Anaheim (16.43): 12th -18
19. Minnesota (17.00): 13th -19
20. Atlanta (17.14): 9th -13
21. Nashville (17.57):5th +1
21. Dallas (17.57): 11th -20
23. Ottawa (17.71): 5th -11
24. Tampa Bay (20.43): 12th -40
25. Columbus (20.57): 14th -39
26. Carolina (20.71): 14th -29
27. Florida (21.29): 13th -24
28. NY Islanders (25.14): 11th -36
29. Toronto (27.00): 15th -48
30. Edmonton (27.57): 15th -65
With a few good games under their belt the Bruins have moved up in these stats and solidified their hold on a playoff spot. They have two games in hand on Montreal and Philadelphia, who are both 2 points ahead. If I were them, I'd aim for the 7th seed. In between the somewhat lopsided but still terrifying Washington and the underrated balance of Buffalo is Pittsburgh- glorious, overhyped Pittsburgh. Yes, they're plus-20 and currently hold the second seed in the East, but their numbers don't scare me. They're 5th in goals for and PK, but 20th in goals against, 23rd in SV%, and only 22nd in PP. Sure, Fleury can make a huge difference if he picks up his game in the postseason, but I don't see him saving this team. Despite what NBC might tell you, Pittsburgh won't go very far this year.
Detroit has made a startling turnaround in nearly every category. Their special teams have improved steadily for months, while their offensive production caught on fire in the past few weeks. Additionally, their 26 year old rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard has a .926 SV% (it's been above .920 since January). Suddenly this mediocre team has turned into a well-oiled, well-balanced machine again. As it stands right now they'd face Vancouver, and I'm looking forward to that. I'd love to see a Canucks/Red Wings playoff game that ends after only one or two overtimes.
A few more thoughts and interesting stats:
1. San Jose (4.71): 1st +49
2. Buffalo (6.86): 3rd +25
3. Vancouver (7.86): 3rd +49
4. Chicago (9.14): 2nd +50
5. Detroit (9.71): 6th +10
6. Washington (10.86): 1st +78
7. Colorado (11.14): 8th +18
7. New Jersey (11.14): 4th +20
9. BOSTON (11.86):8th +2
9. Los Angeles (11.86): 7th +17
11. Philadelphia (12.00): 6th +11
12. Phoenix (12.57): 4th +23
13. Montreal (13.00): 7th -4
14. St. Louis (14.14): 10th -2
15. Pittsburgh (14.29): 2nd +20
16. NY Rangers (14.71): 10th -6
17. Calgary (16.00): 9th +1
18. Anaheim (16.43): 12th -18
19. Minnesota (17.00): 13th -19
20. Atlanta (17.14): 9th -13
21. Nashville (17.57):5th +1
21. Dallas (17.57): 11th -20
23. Ottawa (17.71): 5th -11
24. Tampa Bay (20.43): 12th -40
25. Columbus (20.57): 14th -39
26. Carolina (20.71): 14th -29
27. Florida (21.29): 13th -24
28. NY Islanders (25.14): 11th -36
29. Toronto (27.00): 15th -48
30. Edmonton (27.57): 15th -65
With a few good games under their belt the Bruins have moved up in these stats and solidified their hold on a playoff spot. They have two games in hand on Montreal and Philadelphia, who are both 2 points ahead. If I were them, I'd aim for the 7th seed. In between the somewhat lopsided but still terrifying Washington and the underrated balance of Buffalo is Pittsburgh- glorious, overhyped Pittsburgh. Yes, they're plus-20 and currently hold the second seed in the East, but their numbers don't scare me. They're 5th in goals for and PK, but 20th in goals against, 23rd in SV%, and only 22nd in PP. Sure, Fleury can make a huge difference if he picks up his game in the postseason, but I don't see him saving this team. Despite what NBC might tell you, Pittsburgh won't go very far this year.
Detroit has made a startling turnaround in nearly every category. Their special teams have improved steadily for months, while their offensive production caught on fire in the past few weeks. Additionally, their 26 year old rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard has a .926 SV% (it's been above .920 since January). Suddenly this mediocre team has turned into a well-oiled, well-balanced machine again. As it stands right now they'd face Vancouver, and I'm looking forward to that. I'd love to see a Canucks/Red Wings playoff game that ends after only one or two overtimes.
A few more thoughts and interesting stats:
- Look out for San Jose! It's their year!!!1!
- I see a Buffalo/Washington Eastern Conference Final. Buffalo intimidates me with their skill and hippy goaltender, but they're not a very physical team and I'm not sure how their game will translate into the playoffs. Washington is kamikaze. It'll either work or not work, but no matter what it'll be entertaining.
- How in god's name is Ottawa doing as well as they are?! Only their PK is above average (5th). They're mediocre to bad in literally everything else. Basically, they've won games without the ability to score more goals than their opponent. I don't understand. Whoever gets them in the first round is basically getting a bye. Nashville is similar, though not quite as bad.
- Chicago is 27th in SV%. Huet has been terrible and Niemi decent-ish. The Blackhawks do a good job of shielding this weakness (fewest shots against/game in the league), and Detroit won the Cup without standout goaltending, but this isn't Chris Osgood-level mediocre goaltending. This is bad goaltending, and I think it could hurt them a lot in the postseason.
- Colorado and Montreal are the opposite of Chicago- they let up too many shots and rely too heavily on their goalies. However, Colorado can actually score goals, while Montreal can't.
- Phoenix has 17 OT wins, 12 in the shootout. I'll figure out a way to relate this to my conspiracy theory about the Coyotes. I'm suspicious about a team owned by the NHL doing as well as Phoenix is doing, especially since they haven't had a history of doing particularly well. Sure, it may just be a coincidence, but between my obsession with numbers and my proneness to paranoia, I'm basically the John Nash of Bruins fans. I'll stick with the conspiracy explanation.
- My god, are Edmonton and Toronto bad.
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