November 30, 2011

WRA 11/30/2011

I usually wait until January to start doing these stats, but I couldn't help myself. Stats are way more fun when your team puts up good numbers, and the Bruins have been.
Weighted Rank Average formula here.

1. Boston (4.43)
2. Vancouver (8.00)
3. NY Rangers (8.29)
4. Pittsburgh (8.57)
5. Detroit (10.00)
6. Florida (10.43)
7. Phoenix (11.14)
8. San Jose (11.57)
9. Edmonton (11.71)
10. Buffalo (12.29)
11. Philadelphia (12.57)
12. Los Angeles (12.71)
13. Montreal (14.43)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
13. Toronto (14.43)
16. Minnesota (14.57)
17. Nashville (15.14)
18. Chicago (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.14)
20. Dallas (17.57)
21. Tampa Bay (18.14)
22. Washington (18.71)
23. Colorado (19.14)
23. Winnipeg (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.29)
26. Anaheim (21.86)
27. Calgary (22.14)
28. NY Islanders (23.71)
29. Carolina (25.86)
30. Columbus (26.71)

Some notes on this:
  • Go Bruins. Our weakest number is PP%, at 13th. We are in the top 10 in every other category.
  • It always makes me nervous when Detroit is good. Their PP% is 22nd in the league, bringing their score down a lot. They're a balanced team and will likely go far this year.
  • I thought Pittsburgh would rocket up the charts once Crosby returned, but it isn't their offense that needs a boost. Their goaltending is 15th in the league. Unless that improves, I won't be very scared to face them in the playoffs.
  • The "race for the bottom" will probably be between those bottom five teams. If I were a betting man, I would put money on Columbus.
  • Congatulations to Florida for earning the title of The One Good Team In The Southeast this year.
  • Minnesota has returned to its "winning" formula of scoring no goals but allowing slightly fewer. Other one-sided teams in this category include Phoenix, New Jersey, Florida, the Rangers, and to an extent Montreal. Most of these teams can thank their goaltender; Montreal can probably thank their defense.
  • On the other side of things are the high-scoring but defensively challenged teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, Ottawa, Toronto, and to an extent Vancouver (this will change with their shiny new goalie, Cory Schneider, in net). Most of these teams can also thank their goaltenders for shabby defensive numbers. However, the numbers suggest that Toronto's problem is really their defense, and not Gustavsson.
  • I have a theory that you can tell whether a team's defense or goaltender is responsible for their GAA based on their PK%. A goaltender can do less for a team on the penalty kill, so if a team's PK is worse than their goals against, it probably means the goaltender is carrying the team at even strength. For example, Minnesota is 4th in GA and 13th in PK. This would suggest that their goaltender is the main reason their GA is so good. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is 11th in GA and 3rd in PK. This would suggest their defense is playing a bigger role than their goalie. This doesn't work out for every team, but I find it does for most, especially if you also take SV% into account.
Check back in a couple of weeks for updated numbers. I expect the Islanders and Pittsburgh to improve, and Philadelphia and Los Angeles to drop off a bit.