As is customary, I'm posting half of my picks after the playoffs already started. I swear, though, I picked these before they played.
The best teams in the West are Vancouver, Detroit, and Nashville, but because of matchups only one of them will likely make it to the Conference Finals. As a result, I predict a very anticlimactic Western Conference Final featuring Vancouver and Phoenix. Go Yotes?
(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (8) Los Angeles Kings
Everyone knows the Kings' story this year: they can't score on you, and you can't score on them. Defensively, Vancouver has similar numbers, though LA does have a slight edge. Offensively, Vancouver should blow them out of the water. A low-scoring series benefits the Kings, but Vancouver can play that game, too, if they need to. Vancouver lets up more shots than LA, so they need the good Luongo to show up. If he does, the Kings can't win.
Vancouver in 6
(2) St. Louis Blues vs. (7) San Jose Sharks
St. Louis is good, but painfully bottom-heavy. San Jose is more balanced in that they're mediocre at everything except the penalty kill, which they are awful at. The Sharks don't have the goaltending to win a defensive battle, but don't quite have the offense to make this series anything else. They lack scoring past their first line, which is why they score over 25% of their goals on the powerplay. This series will be boring and I'm planning on watching exactly none of it.
St. Louis in 7
(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (6) Chicago Blackhawks
I've seen a lot of people picking Chicago in this series, which baffles me. Statistically speaking, they're the worst team in the playoffs. They've got the 5th best offense in the NHL, but are near the bottom of the league in pretty much everything else. Phoenix isn't a great team by any means, but they have a solid goaltender and their scoring at even strength is nearly as good as Chicago's. Now that Ulf Samuelsson is safely back in Sweden, I don't even feel bad about picking the Coyotes to win.
Phoenix in 5
(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Picking this series has given me fits. The more numbers I look at, the more confused I am. Nashville has better special teams, but Detroit gets a lot more powerplay time than they give up. Detroit is better at even strength, but they lack quality goaltending. That's all right, though, because their shots for/against ratio is fantastic, while Nashville's is the worst in the playoffs. Somehow, though, Nashville has the most balanced scoring out of playoff teams (only 26% of their goals come from their top line). Detroit is second. I give Detroit the edge in this series, but I'm fully prepared to be wrong.
Detroit in 7
April 13, 2012
April 11, 2012
Eastern Conference Playoff Picks 2012
The Eastern Conference Finals should feature the Rangers vs. the Bruins or Penguins, with the Bruins/Penguins winning and moving onto the Stanley Cup Finals. This is barring major upsets, which is a big "if". There are upsets every year.
Based on that profile, the team that looks most like an upsetting team this year is the Pittsburgh Penguins, which is hardly helpful. So much for predicting the improbable.
(1) New York Rangers vs. (8) Ottawa Senators
The Senators are a great scoring team and are tougher than I always assume they are, but they don't have much of a chance in this series. The Rangers' offense can be shut down, but not by a sieve-like defense and Craig Anderson, who is not what I could call a "starting" goaltender. Ottawa will score enough to make things interesting, but unless Anderson pulls a .940 out of his a**, they're not good enough to win this one.
Rangers in 6
(2) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Washington Capitals
In my mind, the Caps are the worst team in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They're 13th in scoring and bottom half of the league in everything else. They don't have a statistical strength, and their supposed strength (Ovechkin) has always been easily handled by the Bruins' de. Also (and this may be a bit of an inside joke for Bruins fans): Dennis Wideman.
Bruins in 5
(3) Florida Panthers vs. (6) New Jersey Devils
Florida's stagnant offense could really use a matchup like this against a weak goaltender. Unfortunately for them, the Devils' defense has done a remarkable job of shielding their goalies all year, letting up the 2nd fewest shots per game and owning the league's best penalty kill. Jose Theodore thrives in the first round, and the Devils may have trouble scoring on him, but the Panthers de is terrible and I believe they will score in the end. Both of these teams are incredibly beatable, but New Jersey seems to be better coached.
New Jersey in 7
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers
These teams are very similar. Both are offensive powerhouses with weak goalies, a surprisingly successful formula in the postseason. The only noticeable difference is their penalty kills- Pittsburgh is 3rd and Philly is 17th. This speaks to the different quality of defensemen they have, which will be very important considering the quality of goalies involved. Philly leads the league in PP time, which means they score about 1/4 of their goals with the man advantage, as opposed to Pittsburgh's 1/5 (and Boston's Conference-low 1/6). With fewer powerplays awarded in the postseason, Philly could see their scoring drop. This series could really play out any way, with either team coming out on top, but Pittsburgh has that look about them this year.
Pittsburgh in 7
There's no telling for sure which team will make an improbable run, but upsetting teams in recent years have had a certain look to them. They almost all get goaltending above and beyond what they got in the regular season- key to stopping powerhouse teams that outclass you up front. They also have good PP and PK, despite mediocre or lopsided offensive and defensive numbers. This is a sign of a coach who knows how to coach situationally given what he has, which can have a greater impact in the playoffs. Think of the 1980 Olympics, when the US beat a better USSR team because they were coached for that exact matchup. Without Kurt Russell, they didn't have a chance.
God bless America.
Based on that profile, the team that looks most like an upsetting team this year is the Pittsburgh Penguins, which is hardly helpful. So much for predicting the improbable.
(1) New York Rangers vs. (8) Ottawa Senators
The Senators are a great scoring team and are tougher than I always assume they are, but they don't have much of a chance in this series. The Rangers' offense can be shut down, but not by a sieve-like defense and Craig Anderson, who is not what I could call a "starting" goaltender. Ottawa will score enough to make things interesting, but unless Anderson pulls a .940 out of his a**, they're not good enough to win this one.
Rangers in 6
(2) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Washington Capitals
In my mind, the Caps are the worst team in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They're 13th in scoring and bottom half of the league in everything else. They don't have a statistical strength, and their supposed strength (Ovechkin) has always been easily handled by the Bruins' de. Also (and this may be a bit of an inside joke for Bruins fans): Dennis Wideman.
Bruins in 5
(3) Florida Panthers vs. (6) New Jersey Devils
Florida's stagnant offense could really use a matchup like this against a weak goaltender. Unfortunately for them, the Devils' defense has done a remarkable job of shielding their goalies all year, letting up the 2nd fewest shots per game and owning the league's best penalty kill. Jose Theodore thrives in the first round, and the Devils may have trouble scoring on him, but the Panthers de is terrible and I believe they will score in the end. Both of these teams are incredibly beatable, but New Jersey seems to be better coached.
New Jersey in 7
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers
These teams are very similar. Both are offensive powerhouses with weak goalies, a surprisingly successful formula in the postseason. The only noticeable difference is their penalty kills- Pittsburgh is 3rd and Philly is 17th. This speaks to the different quality of defensemen they have, which will be very important considering the quality of goalies involved. Philly leads the league in PP time, which means they score about 1/4 of their goals with the man advantage, as opposed to Pittsburgh's 1/5 (and Boston's Conference-low 1/6). With fewer powerplays awarded in the postseason, Philly could see their scoring drop. This series could really play out any way, with either team coming out on top, but Pittsburgh has that look about them this year.
Pittsburgh in 7
April 4, 2012
Is Scoring or Goaltending More Important to Winning a Cup?
Growing up, certain facts about hockey were drilled into my head as common knowledge. Bobby Orr was the greatest hockey player ever. Ulf Samuelsson is the physical incarnation of evil. The goaltender is a team's most important player in the playoffs.
I realize now that the first two "common knowledge" facts are only common knowledge in the city of Boston. For years, though, I still believed goaltending was the deciding factor in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I'm starting to suspect that the last fact has more to do with Ken Dryden than statistics.
My parents saw Dryden steal a 1971 series for the Canadiens against a Bruins team that was arguably better than the ones that won the cup in 1970 and 1972. This left an impression in their minds: a hot goaltender can ruin everything. It's true that in the most surprising recent upsets (Montreal beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2010, Tampa beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2011), unexpectedly good goaltending was the difference. But overall, goaltending appears to be more of a wildcard factor- capable of stealing series, but not a Stanley Cup.
Since the lockout, there is no discernible pattern in the goaltender quality of Stanley Cup winners. Their regular season SV% ranges from 1st (the 2011 Bruins) to 23rd (2010 Blackhawks). Only Boston and Anaheim had goaltenders in the top 10 in SV%.
Other factors are also all over the board. Goals against displays a weak connection to winning, at best. Special teams have no bearing, which makes sense given that fewer penalties are typically called in the playoffs. Powerplay quality is especially irrelevant.
It appears that the one weakness a team cannot afford to have in the playoffs is lack of scoring. Every winner since the lockout has been top 10 in regular season scoring. In fact, out of the 12 teams to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals since the lockout, 11 were among the top 10 in scoring. Only the 2006 Edmonton Oilers, at 15th, were below this marker.
The Oilers are an interesting case. One could argue that, had Roloson not gotten hurt in the Finals that year, they would be the exception to this rule. However, he did, and they lost, so the rule stands: your team must be top 10 in scoring to win a Stanley Cup, no matter how well your goaltender plays.
Even last year's Bruins prove this rule. Tim Thomas played phenomenally in the Finals, but he couldn't have won that series alone. He had a 1.67 GAA in his three losses- hardly something to complain about. It wasn't until the team started scoring that the Bruins won games.
This all means that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with their incredible offense and incredibly mediocre goaltending, have a better chance at the Cup than the New York Rangers or St. Louis, who are both out of the top 10 in scoring. In all likelihoods, neither the Rangers nor St. Louis will even make the Finals.
Dryden won the Cup for Montreal in 1971. It's possible that Lundqvist or Elliot are good enough to break this rule. But things have changed since the 70's. If I were a betting gal, I would keep my money on Boston, Detroit, or Pennsylvania.
I realize now that the first two "common knowledge" facts are only common knowledge in the city of Boston. For years, though, I still believed goaltending was the deciding factor in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I'm starting to suspect that the last fact has more to do with Ken Dryden than statistics.
My parents saw Dryden steal a 1971 series for the Canadiens against a Bruins team that was arguably better than the ones that won the cup in 1970 and 1972. This left an impression in their minds: a hot goaltender can ruin everything. It's true that in the most surprising recent upsets (Montreal beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2010, Tampa beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2011), unexpectedly good goaltending was the difference. But overall, goaltending appears to be more of a wildcard factor- capable of stealing series, but not a Stanley Cup.
Since the lockout, there is no discernible pattern in the goaltender quality of Stanley Cup winners. Their regular season SV% ranges from 1st (the 2011 Bruins) to 23rd (2010 Blackhawks). Only Boston and Anaheim had goaltenders in the top 10 in SV%.
Other factors are also all over the board. Goals against displays a weak connection to winning, at best. Special teams have no bearing, which makes sense given that fewer penalties are typically called in the playoffs. Powerplay quality is especially irrelevant.
It appears that the one weakness a team cannot afford to have in the playoffs is lack of scoring. Every winner since the lockout has been top 10 in regular season scoring. In fact, out of the 12 teams to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals since the lockout, 11 were among the top 10 in scoring. Only the 2006 Edmonton Oilers, at 15th, were below this marker.
The Oilers are an interesting case. One could argue that, had Roloson not gotten hurt in the Finals that year, they would be the exception to this rule. However, he did, and they lost, so the rule stands: your team must be top 10 in scoring to win a Stanley Cup, no matter how well your goaltender plays.
Even last year's Bruins prove this rule. Tim Thomas played phenomenally in the Finals, but he couldn't have won that series alone. He had a 1.67 GAA in his three losses- hardly something to complain about. It wasn't until the team started scoring that the Bruins won games.
This all means that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with their incredible offense and incredibly mediocre goaltending, have a better chance at the Cup than the New York Rangers or St. Louis, who are both out of the top 10 in scoring. In all likelihoods, neither the Rangers nor St. Louis will even make the Finals.
Dryden won the Cup for Montreal in 1971. It's possible that Lundqvist or Elliot are good enough to break this rule. But things have changed since the 70's. If I were a betting gal, I would keep my money on Boston, Detroit, or Pennsylvania.
February 6, 2012
WRA 2/6/2012
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (4.29)
2. Vancouver (4.71)
3. NY Rangers (8.86)
4. Pittsburgh (9.14)
5. Nashville (9.29)
6. Detroit (10.14)
7. San Jose (10.71)
8. Los Angeles (13.57)
9. St. Louis (14.00)
10. Edmonton (14.14)
11. Philadelphia (14.43)
12. Montreal (14.86)
13. Toronto (15.00)
14. Phoenix (15.43)
15. Calgary (15.86)
15. Florida (15.86)
15. Washington (15.86)
18. New Jersey (16.00)
19. Dallas (16.71)
19. Minnesota (16.71)
21. Chicago (17.57)
22. Winnipeg (17.86)
23. NY Islanders (18.29)
24. Colorado (18.43)
25. Anaheim (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.14)
27. Buffalo (21.71)
28. Tampa Bay (22.29)
29. Carolina (23.00)
30. Columbus (28.29)
1. Boston (4.29)
2. Vancouver (4.71)
3. NY Rangers (8.86)
4. Pittsburgh (9.14)
5. Nashville (9.29)
6. Detroit (10.14)
7. San Jose (10.71)
8. Los Angeles (13.57)
9. St. Louis (14.00)
10. Edmonton (14.14)
11. Philadelphia (14.43)
12. Montreal (14.86)
13. Toronto (15.00)
14. Phoenix (15.43)
15. Calgary (15.86)
15. Florida (15.86)
15. Washington (15.86)
18. New Jersey (16.00)
19. Dallas (16.71)
19. Minnesota (16.71)
21. Chicago (17.57)
22. Winnipeg (17.86)
23. NY Islanders (18.29)
24. Colorado (18.43)
25. Anaheim (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.14)
27. Buffalo (21.71)
28. Tampa Bay (22.29)
29. Carolina (23.00)
30. Columbus (28.29)
- The Bruins are still the best team in the league, though Vancouver is close behind. They're the elite teams in the league right now, and will likely finish the year first and second. I've never seen the top teams so close before.
- The next level of teams includes the Rangers, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Detroit, and San Jose.
- Florida was in this group, but in the past two months have fallen off the chart in nearly every category. Lack of competition in their division means they'll make the playoffs, but they won't get far.
- Nashville, on the other hand, has steadily improved in both offense and defense to become one of the better teams in the league. They're a very hardworking team and relatively balanced, so I don't believe their success is a fluke or temporary. They could benefit from adding an elite forward, however.
- The Rangers GF and PP dropped quite a bit in the past two months. Lundqvist can certainly carry this team a few rounds into the playoffs, but they could also benefit from adding a scorer, especially since Gaborik is due for an injury.
- Detroit's falling score is almost entirely due to suddenly shoddy special teams. Either these will improve, or the rest of the team will follow suit and drop off soon.
- Philadelphia's goaltending continues to worsen, despite their steady offensive output. If they don't address this serious problem, they'll get killed in the playoffs. Again.
- Pittsburgh also has goaltending issues. They're 22nd in SV%, a drop from 15th earlier in the year. Somehow, though, their GA has actually improved. The rest of the team is rallying to make up for their subpar goaltender, but without a backstop this pace is unsustainable.
- Besides the Bruins, there isn't a real threat in the Northeast Division. Montreal has great defensemen, but little else. Toronto and Ottawa have scoring, but little else. Buffalo has little. There will probably be four Atlantic teams in the playoffs this year for that reason.
- Los Angeles and Minnesota have to find a way to score to be successful. Their goaltending has put both teams in a playoff spot for the time being, but they can't maintain that position while 30th and 29th in scoring, respectively.
- The Oilers flirted with being one of the better teams in the league, but are now in the middle of the pack. They should be doing slightly better in the standings than they are, or maybe just slightly worse in these stats. It depends if they can improve defensively.
- Buffalo's decline has been dramatic and pretty much linear. They've gone from being one of the better teams in the league in December to being in the lowest class of teams now. I actually expect this to improve, though I won't be shocked if it doesn't.
- That lowest class also includes Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the All-Star of Suck, Columbus. There is no hope in Columbus. That's what you get for being a douche, Jeff Carter.
December 20, 2011
WRA 12/20/2011
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (3.00)
2. Vancouver (4.86)
3. Detroit (7.14)
4. NY Rangers (7.86)
5. Pittsburgh (9.00)
6. Florida (10.14)
7. Nashville (11.43)
8. Philadelphia (12.00)
9. Minnesota (12.14)
10. Edmonton (12.29)
11. San Jose (13.29)
12. Chicago (14.14)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
14. Buffalo (14.71)
15. Los Angeles (15.43)
16. Montreal (15.71)
17. Dallas (16.00)
18. Winnipeg (16.71)
19. Washington (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.00)
21. Phoenix (17.14)
22. Toronto (17.57)
23. Calgary (18.00)
24. Colorado (20.14)
25. Ottawa (20.57)
26. Anaheim (22.00)
27. Tampa Bay (22.57)
28. NY Islanders (24.71)
29. Carolina (26.00)
30. Columbus (27.71)
1. Boston (3.00)
2. Vancouver (4.86)
3. Detroit (7.14)
4. NY Rangers (7.86)
5. Pittsburgh (9.00)
6. Florida (10.14)
7. Nashville (11.43)
8. Philadelphia (12.00)
9. Minnesota (12.14)
10. Edmonton (12.29)
11. San Jose (13.29)
12. Chicago (14.14)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
14. Buffalo (14.71)
15. Los Angeles (15.43)
16. Montreal (15.71)
17. Dallas (16.00)
18. Winnipeg (16.71)
19. Washington (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.00)
21. Phoenix (17.14)
22. Toronto (17.57)
23. Calgary (18.00)
24. Colorado (20.14)
25. Ottawa (20.57)
26. Anaheim (22.00)
27. Tampa Bay (22.57)
28. NY Islanders (24.71)
29. Carolina (26.00)
30. Columbus (27.71)
- Having seemingly found a solution to their goaltending dilemma, Vancouver's score has shot up by more than 3 (last month it was 8.00). Unfortunately for them, the Bruins also improved in 4 of 5 categories. Their 11th ranked PP is the only category they aren't in the top 3. Boston is still the best team in the league right now.
- Detroit continues to make me nervous. Their offense has really picked it up in the past month, and Howard continues to have a good year. Their only real weakness is the PK, which doesn't help the Bruins much as we rely on our 5-on-5 play to win games.
- Based on this, I see a Boston-Detroit Stanley Cup Final. Vancouver may be ahead now, but they still don't seem sure about who their starter is in net. Without consistency from one of their goaltenders, it will be difficult to make a long postseason run.
- Columbus is bottom-5 in every category. Ugly stuff going on in Ohio this year.
- Minnesota and Chicago will never make it to the Finals if they don't address their offense and defense, respectively.
- Despite a seeming rollercoaster ride of emotions, Pittsburgh's numbers have stayed steady. This isn't good news for them. They desperately need their goaltending to improve. Philadelphia is in the same boat.
November 30, 2011
WRA 11/30/2011
I usually wait until January to start doing these stats, but I couldn't help myself. Stats are way more fun when your team puts up good numbers, and the Bruins have been.
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (4.43)
2. Vancouver (8.00)
3. NY Rangers (8.29)
4. Pittsburgh (8.57)
5. Detroit (10.00)
6. Florida (10.43)
7. Phoenix (11.14)
8. San Jose (11.57)
9. Edmonton (11.71)
10. Buffalo (12.29)
11. Philadelphia (12.57)
12. Los Angeles (12.71)
13. Montreal (14.43)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
13. Toronto (14.43)
16. Minnesota (14.57)
17. Nashville (15.14)
18. Chicago (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.14)
20. Dallas (17.57)
21. Tampa Bay (18.14)
22. Washington (18.71)
23. Colorado (19.14)
23. Winnipeg (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.29)
26. Anaheim (21.86)
27. Calgary (22.14)
28. NY Islanders (23.71)
29. Carolina (25.86)
30. Columbus (26.71)
Some notes on this:
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (4.43)
2. Vancouver (8.00)
3. NY Rangers (8.29)
4. Pittsburgh (8.57)
5. Detroit (10.00)
6. Florida (10.43)
7. Phoenix (11.14)
8. San Jose (11.57)
9. Edmonton (11.71)
10. Buffalo (12.29)
11. Philadelphia (12.57)
12. Los Angeles (12.71)
13. Montreal (14.43)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
13. Toronto (14.43)
16. Minnesota (14.57)
17. Nashville (15.14)
18. Chicago (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.14)
20. Dallas (17.57)
21. Tampa Bay (18.14)
22. Washington (18.71)
23. Colorado (19.14)
23. Winnipeg (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.29)
26. Anaheim (21.86)
27. Calgary (22.14)
28. NY Islanders (23.71)
29. Carolina (25.86)
30. Columbus (26.71)
Some notes on this:
- Go Bruins. Our weakest number is PP%, at 13th. We are in the top 10 in every other category.
- It always makes me nervous when Detroit is good. Their PP% is 22nd in the league, bringing their score down a lot. They're a balanced team and will likely go far this year.
- I thought Pittsburgh would rocket up the charts once Crosby returned, but it isn't their offense that needs a boost. Their goaltending is 15th in the league. Unless that improves, I won't be very scared to face them in the playoffs.
- The "race for the bottom" will probably be between those bottom five teams. If I were a betting man, I would put money on Columbus.
- Congatulations to Florida for earning the title of The One Good Team In The Southeast this year.
- Minnesota has returned to its "winning" formula of scoring no goals but allowing slightly fewer. Other one-sided teams in this category include Phoenix, New Jersey, Florida, the Rangers, and to an extent Montreal. Most of these teams can thank their goaltender; Montreal can probably thank their defense.
- On the other side of things are the high-scoring but defensively challenged teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, Ottawa, Toronto, and to an extent Vancouver (this will change with their shiny new goalie, Cory Schneider, in net). Most of these teams can also thank their goaltenders for shabby defensive numbers. However, the numbers suggest that Toronto's problem is really their defense, and not Gustavsson.
- I have a theory that you can tell whether a team's defense or goaltender is responsible for their GAA based on their PK%. A goaltender can do less for a team on the penalty kill, so if a team's PK is worse than their goals against, it probably means the goaltender is carrying the team at even strength. For example, Minnesota is 4th in GA and 13th in PK. This would suggest that their goaltender is the main reason their GA is so good. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is 11th in GA and 3rd in PK. This would suggest their defense is playing a bigger role than their goalie. This doesn't work out for every team, but I find it does for most, especially if you also take SV% into account.
May 31, 2011
Stanley Cup Finals
Pictured: the last time the Boston Bruins were in the Stanley Cup Finals
There is no more feeling nervous and pre-upset. It's no longer bad luck to be hopeful. This is the Stanley Cup Finals. We're too close to winning it all to be afraid of losing. This is one of the best experiences of my life and it's nothing but fun.
Most people don't think the Bruins are all that close to the Stanley Cup. Standing in their way is the Vancouver Canucks, the best team in the league this year and numerically the best team I've ever seen. Everybody thinks they're going to win, including the Canucks themelves. The feeling in Vancouver seems to be one of jubilance and confidence.
This is an advantage for the Bruins. The feeling in Boston before this series was one of pure terror. Right now? Feistiness. We know we're the underdogs. Losing to the Canucks won't be letting us down once again-- it's expected. Instead of being terrified of the worst, we've finally accepted it. Oddly enough, this means we have more faith in the Bruins. It's not about being perfect, it's about fighting harder. They can do that. Boston is made to fight (the first one).
However, it's not the underdog story everyone is making it out to be. The Bruins have actually been better in the playoffs so far. We've scored more goals, let in fewer, and Timmy has been better than Roberto "Italian Stallion" Luongo. As usual, special teams have been our weakness. The Canucks have been slightly better at killing penalties and much, much better at scoring powerplay goals.
I actually believe this can be another advantage for the Bruins. As long as we don't let Brad Marchand off his leash, there will be fewer penalties called in the Finals. While we've been slightly better than the Canucks overall, we've been vastly better at even strength in the playoffs. Powerplay goals accounted for 1/3 of their total scoring and less than 1/10 of ours. To put that another way, at even strength, the Canucks scored 1.83 goals/game, and we scored 2.94.
Vancouver may have been the top offensive team in the regular season, but they're 8th in the playoffs and have only been +3 through 18 games (not counting empty net goals). The Bruins have been +11. To put that in perspective, if these teams had been +1 in every win and -1 in every loss, they would be +6. The Canucks have actually been subpar for making it this far in the postseason.
This is the Stanley Cup Finals-- nothing is certain. The more certain you are, the less you know. Canucks fans seem very certain. I hope they don't know what the Bruins capable of.
There is no more feeling nervous and pre-upset. It's no longer bad luck to be hopeful. This is the Stanley Cup Finals. We're too close to winning it all to be afraid of losing. This is one of the best experiences of my life and it's nothing but fun.
Most people don't think the Bruins are all that close to the Stanley Cup. Standing in their way is the Vancouver Canucks, the best team in the league this year and numerically the best team I've ever seen. Everybody thinks they're going to win, including the Canucks themelves. The feeling in Vancouver seems to be one of jubilance and confidence.
This is an advantage for the Bruins. The feeling in Boston before this series was one of pure terror. Right now? Feistiness. We know we're the underdogs. Losing to the Canucks won't be letting us down once again-- it's expected. Instead of being terrified of the worst, we've finally accepted it. Oddly enough, this means we have more faith in the Bruins. It's not about being perfect, it's about fighting harder. They can do that. Boston is made to fight (the first one).
However, it's not the underdog story everyone is making it out to be. The Bruins have actually been better in the playoffs so far. We've scored more goals, let in fewer, and Timmy has been better than Roberto "Italian Stallion" Luongo. As usual, special teams have been our weakness. The Canucks have been slightly better at killing penalties and much, much better at scoring powerplay goals.
I actually believe this can be another advantage for the Bruins. As long as we don't let Brad Marchand off his leash, there will be fewer penalties called in the Finals. While we've been slightly better than the Canucks overall, we've been vastly better at even strength in the playoffs. Powerplay goals accounted for 1/3 of their total scoring and less than 1/10 of ours. To put that another way, at even strength, the Canucks scored 1.83 goals/game, and we scored 2.94.
Vancouver may have been the top offensive team in the regular season, but they're 8th in the playoffs and have only been +3 through 18 games (not counting empty net goals). The Bruins have been +11. To put that in perspective, if these teams had been +1 in every win and -1 in every loss, they would be +6. The Canucks have actually been subpar for making it this far in the postseason.
This is the Stanley Cup Finals-- nothing is certain. The more certain you are, the less you know. Canucks fans seem very certain. I hope they don't know what the Bruins capable of.
May 27, 2011
It All Comes Down to This
Tonight the Bruins will play their 100th game this season. One game separates them from summer vacation and the opportunity to play for the most prized trophy in all of sports. The Stanley Cup. Sixty minutes of what is sure to be a grueling, physical battle. They will leave it all on the line tonight. When looking back at this series between the Bruins and Lightning, its been all about who can out-coach who, questionable calls by the officials and most of the games were won by special teams; or lack thereof. But tonight, the winner of this game will be the team who has the most heart.
These players have grown up their entire lives dreaming of this opportunity. This is why they play. The Bruins have proven to the league, the fans and most importantly themselves, that they are one of the top three teams in NHL. They need to stop overthinking their mistakes, stop second guessing themselves and just go out there and win 60 minutes of hockey. They're in this position for a reason. Sure they have league recognized talent; Vezina finalist Timmy in net, and Norris finalist Chara on defense. But it goes even further than techincal skill. They have the grit and tenacity. Lets be honest, they're a feisty bunch of assholes. The pieces are all in place and they're in control of their destiny. They can do it. I truly believe they can. Will they? We'll see.
All I know, is that words will not be able to describe the feeling. if the Bruins win tonight's game. If they lose, well...I know the drill. I'll retreat back home and ignore all aspects of hockey until maybe the draft or even training camp. I won't watch the Finals. But..if they win? Well, thats uncharted territory for me. I do know there will be alot of tears and a lot of joy. It's almost comical to me how if they win I'll cry my eyes out, and if they lose I'll be despondent, yes, but I won't let my emotions get the best of me.
I hope I'm crying tonight.
These players have grown up their entire lives dreaming of this opportunity. This is why they play. The Bruins have proven to the league, the fans and most importantly themselves, that they are one of the top three teams in NHL. They need to stop overthinking their mistakes, stop second guessing themselves and just go out there and win 60 minutes of hockey. They're in this position for a reason. Sure they have league recognized talent; Vezina finalist Timmy in net, and Norris finalist Chara on defense. But it goes even further than techincal skill. They have the grit and tenacity. Lets be honest, they're a feisty bunch of assholes. The pieces are all in place and they're in control of their destiny. They can do it. I truly believe they can. Will they? We'll see.
All I know, is that words will not be able to describe the feeling. if the Bruins win tonight's game. If they lose, well...I know the drill. I'll retreat back home and ignore all aspects of hockey until maybe the draft or even training camp. I won't watch the Finals. But..if they win? Well, thats uncharted territory for me. I do know there will be alot of tears and a lot of joy. It's almost comical to me how if they win I'll cry my eyes out, and if they lose I'll be despondent, yes, but I won't let my emotions get the best of me.
I hope I'm crying tonight.
May 21, 2011
The Five Stages of Being a Bruins Fan
Denial: My internal monologue during the third period went something like this: "This isn't happening. They can still win the game. Blowing a 3-0 lead is nothing new, but this is a different team. They'll come back."
Anger: Even other Bruins fans were trying to calm me down after the game and I may have broken a finger punching a picture I drew of Tomas Kaberle's face.
Bargaining: I already offered my soul for a Stanley Cup during game 4 in Montreal, but I reminded whoever it is that's taking me up on that offer that winning this game would help.
Depression:
Acceptance: I will not reach this stage until I drink enough $30 hotel white zinfandel to lose consciousness. Perhaps the saddest prospect of all.
Since I got back to our hotel room in Tampa, I've been alternating between anger and depression. I suspect this will continue until game 5.
As depressed/angry/drunk as I am, I don't believe we'll lose this series just because of this game. I hope the Bruins feel the same way.
Anger: Even other Bruins fans were trying to calm me down after the game and I may have broken a finger punching a picture I drew of Tomas Kaberle's face.
Bargaining: I already offered my soul for a Stanley Cup during game 4 in Montreal, but I reminded whoever it is that's taking me up on that offer that winning this game would help.
Depression:
Acceptance: I will not reach this stage until I drink enough $30 hotel white zinfandel to lose consciousness. Perhaps the saddest prospect of all.
Since I got back to our hotel room in Tampa, I've been alternating between anger and depression. I suspect this will continue until game 5.
As depressed/angry/drunk as I am, I don't believe we'll lose this series just because of this game. I hope the Bruins feel the same way.
April 17, 2011
Bruins/Habs: The First Two Games
I agree with Paula's points in her last post. Here are some more thoughts about what is happening in this series, and how to make it better.
First, some stats.
Bruins
GF: 5th GA: 2nd PP: 20th PK: 16th SV%: 1st
+51 goal differential
32.9 shots for/game (3rd) 32.7 SA/g (29th)
Montreal
GF: 21st GA: 8th PP: 7th PK: 7th SV%: 5th
+7 goal differential
31.7 SF/g (9th) 31 SA/g (18th)
Besides Montreal's odd disparity in shots for vs. goals for, all of this paints a very clear picture of these two teams. The Bruins are strong but somewhat reckless. We have the ability to kick the crap out of other teams, as is evident by our high goals for and goal differential.
The Bruins are known as a defensive team; however, the defense has struggled to move the puck all year. Chara and Seidenberg are high points. Johnny Boychuk ranges from our 2nd defenseman to the worst player on the ice, Ference does what he can, and Adam McQuaid's struggle with anxiety only sometimes works in our favor. We let up more shots than anyone but Carolina. Our low goals against is entirely due to Timmy.
This, coupled with our horrid special teams, is indicative of a disorganized team. All year the Bruins' biggest problem was mental. When they lost it was because they panicked and lost focus. One could often pinpoint the exact moment at which they freaked out. Going into the playoffs, I said I thought they had the ability to win the Stanley Cup, but that by no means meant they would.
I should explain now that I don't think PP and PK are as important as GF, GA, or SV%. The main reason I include those stats is because they reflect on the coach. There are limitations on every team, so a team can be stronger in one special team or the other and still have a decent coach. However, if a very strong team is in the bottom of the league in both categories, it is a sign that things are not running smoothly. On the other hand, if an otherwise mediocre team has very good special teams, it is a sign that the players are doing what the coach wants, and that the coach wants the right things.
Montreal can't score. They have some skill up front but overall their forwards are their weakness. Their strength is goaltending, defense, and special teams. Their low goal differential means that they only won games by a small margin. Going into this series, I believed we could steamroll over them simply by outscoring them. There was no way Montreal could keep up with our offense.
But there was something I didn't take into consideration: Jacques Martin knows all of this. All of it. His teams strengths, the Bruins weaknesses, both teams' style of play. He clearly studied numbers and video extensively, probably obsessively. He knew there was only one way his team could beat ours, and he figured out how to make sure the series was played exactly that way. What we've gotten is a low-scoring series and an emotionally fragile Bruins team that may be too traumatized by the first two games to recover.
This is what the Habs have been doing to make the Bruins look bad:
First, some stats.
Bruins
GF: 5th GA: 2nd PP: 20th PK: 16th SV%: 1st
+51 goal differential
32.9 shots for/game (3rd) 32.7 SA/g (29th)
Montreal
GF: 21st GA: 8th PP: 7th PK: 7th SV%: 5th
+7 goal differential
31.7 SF/g (9th) 31 SA/g (18th)
Besides Montreal's odd disparity in shots for vs. goals for, all of this paints a very clear picture of these two teams. The Bruins are strong but somewhat reckless. We have the ability to kick the crap out of other teams, as is evident by our high goals for and goal differential.
The Bruins are known as a defensive team; however, the defense has struggled to move the puck all year. Chara and Seidenberg are high points. Johnny Boychuk ranges from our 2nd defenseman to the worst player on the ice, Ference does what he can, and Adam McQuaid's struggle with anxiety only sometimes works in our favor. We let up more shots than anyone but Carolina. Our low goals against is entirely due to Timmy.
This, coupled with our horrid special teams, is indicative of a disorganized team. All year the Bruins' biggest problem was mental. When they lost it was because they panicked and lost focus. One could often pinpoint the exact moment at which they freaked out. Going into the playoffs, I said I thought they had the ability to win the Stanley Cup, but that by no means meant they would.
I should explain now that I don't think PP and PK are as important as GF, GA, or SV%. The main reason I include those stats is because they reflect on the coach. There are limitations on every team, so a team can be stronger in one special team or the other and still have a decent coach. However, if a very strong team is in the bottom of the league in both categories, it is a sign that things are not running smoothly. On the other hand, if an otherwise mediocre team has very good special teams, it is a sign that the players are doing what the coach wants, and that the coach wants the right things.
Montreal can't score. They have some skill up front but overall their forwards are their weakness. Their strength is goaltending, defense, and special teams. Their low goal differential means that they only won games by a small margin. Going into this series, I believed we could steamroll over them simply by outscoring them. There was no way Montreal could keep up with our offense.
But there was something I didn't take into consideration: Jacques Martin knows all of this. All of it. His teams strengths, the Bruins weaknesses, both teams' style of play. He clearly studied numbers and video extensively, probably obsessively. He knew there was only one way his team could beat ours, and he figured out how to make sure the series was played exactly that way. What we've gotten is a low-scoring series and an emotionally fragile Bruins team that may be too traumatized by the first two games to recover.
This is what the Habs have been doing to make the Bruins look bad:
- Chipping the puck over our heads into the neutral zone or deep into our zone. They do this a lot without icing the puck, meaning they practiced it. While that play gives us possession, it puts the puck in the hands of our de, who have had trouble making clean breakout passes all year. Montreal is doing this over and over again to test our de, and our de have mostly failed. Kaberle has suddenly lost the ability to move the puck, and Johnny Boy passes it to Plekanec more often than any Bruin. Seidenberg consistently makes plays no one else can, and Andrew Ference has had the most success carrying the puck up, but that still means 67% of our defensemen are terrifying and ineffective. Chara has an excuse. Kaberle does not.
- Collapsing down on our forwards the second they enter the offensive zone. This either forces a turnover or forces us to dump the puck in deep. Unlike the Bruins, the Habs defensemen are very strong, and their breakout is a thing of beauty when they have time and space.
- First and foremost, the de need to settle the fuck down. They can't expect the forwards to score if they can't keep the puck in the offensive zone and pass to the wrong team. As a former defensemen, I feel their plight, but I also know there is no place for fear in hockey. Work your hardest with every step and you'll have nothing to be nervous about.
- Close puck support. This is probably the biggest change in the system that needs to happen. Basically, the Bruins need to play more like Detroit. When a Red Wing loses the puck, the first player to get it is another Red Wing. Especially coming across the Habs' blue line, the Bruins should be right on top of one another. Nathan Horton isn't going to do any good breaking for the net if David Krejci skates alone into 3 Habs. If he skates into 3 Habs and is trailed by Milan Lucic, who can pick up the puck he loses and send it to Horton, that's another matter. Closely supporting the puck carrier also means they can make shorter passes, meaning fewer turnovers and more sustained puck possession. However, the only way this strategy is effective is if every player knows where their teammates are going, knows where they are supposed to be, and skates as hard as they can to get there.
- Forecheck. Their de need time to work their magic. We've had some success when we don't let them build momentum. Pressuring them also means they'll need to dish to their forwards sooner and more frequently, and like I said, their forwards are their weakness. We've won a lot of battles along the wall in the offensive zone, especially when our de pinch down early. We need to get the puck out of their defensemen's hands and then take it from their forwards.
- Generally, the Bruins have to move more in the offensive zone (themselves-- not just the puck). It's too easy for Carey Price to see and stop shots when they come from a stationary player. Instead of setting up in their zone and trying to force point shots when we clearly don't have shooting lanes, we need to keep moving throughout the zone. This automatically creates chances, as it spreads out their de and forces Price to scramble. They clog the slot, which has made things tricky for us. However, it also means there is more room to skate in the rest of the zone. We need to use that space. Standing still in the slot is only effective if we're about to shoot. Otherwise, keep moving. Help the forecheck. Pull a Brett Hull and wander around until you see an opportunity. Just keep swimming, guys.
- Entering the zone cleanly is another way to get movement in their zone. It's how we scored our only goal.
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