WRA 2/6/2012

Weighted Rank Average formula here.

1. Boston (4.29)
2. Vancouver (4.71)
3. NY Rangers (8.86)
4. Pittsburgh (9.14)
5. Nashville (9.29)
6. Detroit (10.14)
7. San Jose (10.71)
8. Los Angeles (13.57)
9. St. Louis (14.00)
10. Edmonton (14.14)
11. Philadelphia (14.43)
12. Montreal (14.86)
13. Toronto (15.00)
14. Phoenix (15.43)
15. Calgary (15.86)
15. Florida (15.86)
15. Washington (15.86)
18. New Jersey (16.00)
19. Dallas (16.71)
19. Minnesota (16.71)
21. Chicago (17.57)
22. Winnipeg (17.86)
23. NY Islanders (18.29)
24. Colorado (18.43)
25. Anaheim (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.14)
27. Buffalo (21.71)
28. Tampa Bay (22.29)
29. Carolina (23.00)
30. Columbus (28.29)

• The Bruins are still the best team in the league, though Vancouver is close behind. They're the elite teams in the league right now, and will likely finish the year first and second. I've never seen the top teams so close before.
  
• The next level of teams includes the Rangers, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Detroit, and San Jose.
  
• Florida was in this group, but in the past two months have fallen off the chart in nearly every category. Lack of competition in their division means they'll make the playoffs, but they won't get far.
  
• Nashville, on the other hand, has steadily improved in both offense and defense to become one of the better teams in the league. They're a very hardworking team and relatively balanced, so I don't believe their success is a fluke or temporary. They could benefit from adding an elite forward, however.
  
• The Rangers GF and PP dropped quite a bit in the past two months. Lundqvist can certainly carry this team a few rounds into the playoffs, but they could also benefit from adding a scorer, especially since Gaborik is due for an injury.
  
• Detroit's falling score is almost entirely due to suddenly shoddy special teams. Either these will improve, or the rest of the team will follow suit and drop off soon.
• Philadelphia's goaltending continues to worsen, despite their steady offensive output. If they don't address this serious problem, they'll get killed in the playoffs. Again.
  
• Pittsburgh also has goaltending issues. They're 22nd in SV%, a drop from 15th earlier in the year. Somehow, though, their GA has actually improved. The rest of the team is rallying to make up for their subpar goaltender, but without a backstop this pace is unsustainable.
  
• Besides the Bruins, there isn't a real threat in the Northeast Division. Montreal has great defensemen, but little else. Toronto and Ottawa have scoring, but little else. Buffalo has little. There will probably be four Atlantic teams in the playoffs this year for that reason.
• Los Angeles and Minnesota have to find a way to score to be successful. Their goaltending has put both teams in a playoff spot for the time being, but they can't maintain that position while 30th and 29th in scoring, respectively.
• The Oilers flirted with being one of the better teams in the league, but are now in the middle of the pack. They should be doing slightly better in the standings than they are, or maybe just slightly worse in these stats. It depends if they can improve defensively.
  
• Buffalo's decline has been dramatic and pretty much linear. They've gone from being one of the better teams in the league in December to being in the lowest class of teams now. I actually expect this to improve, though I won't be shocked if it doesn't.
  
• That lowest class also includes Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the All-Star of Suck, Columbus. There is no hope in Columbus. That's what you get for being a douche, Jeff Carter.
  

There are few balanced teams in the league right now, even among successful ones. I don't expect Boston or Vancouver to make any major deals, but everyone else has weaknesses that need addressing. Teams that are top-heavy (like Toronto and Washington), bottom-heavy (like Los Angeles and St. Louis), or lack playoff-caliber goaltending (like Chicago and Philadelphia) should make moves before the trade deadline. Other teams, like Pittsburgh, Detroit, and San Jose, have the necessary components, but need to make them work better to win playoff series. These teams may also choose to go the way of trades. The next few weeks will definitely be interesting, and will definitely affect these stats. I'm curious to see how and by whom.

WRA 12/20/2011

Weighted Rank Average formula here.

1. Boston (3.00)
2. Vancouver (4.86)
3. Detroit (7.14)
4. NY Rangers (7.86)
5. Pittsburgh (9.00)
6. Florida (10.14)
7. Nashville (11.43)
8. Philadelphia (12.00)
9. Minnesota (12.14)
10. Edmonton (12.29)
11. San Jose (13.29)
12. Chicago (14.14)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
14. Buffalo (14.71)
15. Los Angeles (15.43)
16. Montreal (15.71)
17. Dallas (16.00)
18. Winnipeg (16.71)
19. Washington (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.00)
21. Phoenix (17.14)
22. Toronto (17.57)
23. Calgary (18.00)
24. Colorado (20.14)
25. Ottawa (20.57)
26. Anaheim (22.00)
27. Tampa Bay (22.57)
28. NY Islanders (24.71)
29. Carolina (26.00)
30. Columbus (27.71)

• Having seemingly found a solution to their goaltending dilemma, Vancouver's score has shot up by more than 3 (last month it was 8.00). Unfortunately for them, the Bruins also improved in 4 of 5 categories. Their 11th ranked PP is the only category they aren't in the top 3. Boston is still the best team in the league right now.
  
• Detroit continues to make me nervous. Their offense has really picked it up in the past month, and Howard continues to have a good year. Their only real weakness is the PK, which doesn't help the Bruins much as we rely on our 5-on-5 play to win games.
• Based on this, I see a Boston-Detroit Stanley Cup Final. Vancouver may be ahead now, but they still don't seem sure about who their starter is in net. Without consistency from one of their goaltenders, it will be difficult to make a long postseason run.
  
• Columbus is bottom-5 in every category. Ugly stuff going on in Ohio this year.
  
• Minnesota and Chicago will never make it to the Finals if they don't address their offense and defense, respectively.
• Despite a seeming rollercoaster ride of emotions, Pittsburgh's numbers have stayed steady. This isn't good news for them. They desperately need their goaltending to improve. Philadelphia is in the same boat.

WRA 11/30/2011

I usually wait until January to start doing these stats, but I couldn't help myself. Stats are way more fun when your team puts up good numbers, and the Bruins have been.
Weighted Rank Average formula here.

1. Boston (4.43)
2. Vancouver (8.00)
3. NY Rangers (8.29)
4. Pittsburgh (8.57)
5. Detroit (10.00)
6. Florida (10.43)
7. Phoenix (11.14)
8. San Jose (11.57)
9. Edmonton (11.71)
10. Buffalo (12.29)
11. Philadelphia (12.57)
12. Los Angeles (12.71)
13. Montreal (14.43)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
13. Toronto (14.43)
16. Minnesota (14.57)
17. Nashville (15.14)
18. Chicago (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.14)
20. Dallas (17.57)
21. Tampa Bay (18.14)
22. Washington (18.71)
23. Colorado (19.14)
23. Winnipeg (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.29)
26. Anaheim (21.86)
27. Calgary (22.14)
28. NY Islanders (23.71)
29. Carolina (25.86)
30. Columbus (26.71)

Some notes on this:

• Go Bruins. Our weakest number is PP%, at 13th. We are in the top 10 in every other category.
• It always makes me nervous when Detroit is good. Their PP% is 22nd in the league, bringing their score down a lot. They're a balanced team and will likely go far this year.
• I thought Pittsburgh would rocket up the charts once Crosby returned, but it isn't their offense that needs a boost. Their goaltending is 15th in the league. Unless that improves, I won't be very scared to face them in the playoffs.
• The "race for the bottom" will probably be between those bottom five teams. If I were a betting man, I would put money on Columbus.
  
• Congatulations to Florida for earning the title of The One Good Team In The Southeast this year.
  
• Minnesota has returned to its "winning" formula of scoring no goals but allowing slightly fewer. Other one-sided teams in this category include Phoenix, New Jersey, Florida, the Rangers, and to an extent Montreal. Most of these teams can thank their goaltender; Montreal can probably thank their defense.
• On the other side of things are the high-scoring but defensively challenged teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, Ottawa, Toronto, and to an extent Vancouver (this will change with their shiny new goalie, Cory Schneider, in net). Most of these teams can also thank their goaltenders for shabby defensive numbers. However, the numbers suggest that Toronto's problem is really their defense, and not Gustavsson.
• I have a theory that you can tell whether a team's defense or goaltender is responsible for their GAA based on their PK%. A goaltender can do less for a team on the penalty kill, so if a team's PK is worse than their goals against, it probably means the goaltender is carrying the team at even strength. For example, Minnesota is 4th in GA and 13th in PK. This would suggest that their goaltender is the main reason their GA is so good. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is 11th in GA and 3rd in PK. This would suggest their defense is playing a bigger role than their goalie. This doesn't work out for every team, but I find it does for most, especially if you also take SV% into account.

Check back in a couple of weeks for updated numbers. I expect the Islanders and Pittsburgh to improve, and Philadelphia and Los Angeles to drop off a bit.

WRAP: Playoff Team Rankings

To recap: the end of the year statistic I do also incorporates conference rank. So the formula is:
(2GF+2GA+PP+PK+SV%+CONF RK)/8

1. San Jose (4.63)
2. Buffalo (6.13)
3. Chicago (7.63)
4. Vancouver (8.38)
5. New Jersey (9.00)
6. Detroit (9.25)
7. Washington (9.38)
8. Philadelphia (10.75)
9. Los Angeles (10.88)
10. Phoenix (11.88)
11. Boston (12.13)
12. Montreal (12.25)
13. Colorado (12.50)
14. Pittsburgh (13.13)
15. Ottawa (15.75)
16. Nashville (17.38)

Thank GOD the Bruins didn't get Washington, right? Yes, they have the best offense in the NHL. They scored 45 more goals than the next highest scoring team (Vancouver). However, they may have gotten some help from their division. The Southeast has such defensive gems as Florida (19th in GA), Atlanta (25th), Carolina (26th), and Tampa Bay (27th). Washington scored 4.17 goals a game against its division and 3.67 against everyone else. That being said, 3.67 goals a game would still lead the league.

There's only one lower seeded team that has a higher score on this than their opponent (Detroit over Phoenix) but that doesn't mean it's that simple. I'll do predictions whenever I finally get around to it!

WRA 3/29 and playoff picture thoughts

WRA RANKING (SCORE): CONF. RANKING +/-

1. San Jose (4.71): 1st +49
2. Buffalo (6.86): 3rd +25
3. Vancouver (7.86): 3rd +49
4. Chicago (9.14): 2nd +50
5. Detroit (9.71): 6th +10
6. Washington (10.86): 1st +78
7. Colorado (11.14): 8th +18
7. New Jersey (11.14): 4th +20
9. BOSTON (11.86):8th +2
9. Los Angeles (11.86): 7th +17
11. Philadelphia (12.00): 6th +11
12. Phoenix (12.57): 4th +23
13. Montreal (13.00): 7th -4
14. St. Louis (14.14): 10th -2
15. Pittsburgh (14.29): 2nd +20
16. NY Rangers (14.71): 10th -6
17. Calgary (16.00): 9th +1
18. Anaheim (16.43): 12th -18
19. Minnesota (17.00): 13th -19
20. Atlanta (17.14): 9th -13
21. Nashville (17.57):5th +1
21. Dallas (17.57): 11th -20
23. Ottawa (17.71): 5th -11
24. Tampa Bay (20.43): 12th -40
25. Columbus (20.57): 14th -39
26. Carolina (20.71): 14th -29
27. Florida (21.29): 13th -24
28. NY Islanders (25.14): 11th -36
29. Toronto (27.00): 15th -48
30. Edmonton (27.57): 15th -65

With a few good games under their belt the Bruins have moved up in these stats and solidified their hold on a playoff spot. They have two games in hand on Montreal and Philadelphia, who are both 2 points ahead. If I were them, I'd aim for the 7th seed. In between the somewhat lopsided but still terrifying Washington and the underrated balance of Buffalo is Pittsburgh- glorious, overhyped Pittsburgh. Yes, they're plus-20 and currently hold the second seed in the East, but their numbers don't scare me. They're 5th in goals for and PK, but 20th in goals against, 23rd in SV%, and only 22nd in PP. Sure, Fleury can make a huge difference if he picks up his game in the postseason, but I don't see him saving this team. Despite what NBC might tell you, Pittsburgh won't go very far this year.

Detroit has made a startling turnaround in nearly every category. Their special teams have improved steadily for months, while their offensive production caught on fire in the past few weeks. Additionally, their 26 year old rookie goaltender Jimmy Howard has a .926 SV% (it's been above .920 since January). Suddenly this mediocre team has turned into a well-oiled, well-balanced machine again. As it stands right now they'd face Vancouver, and I'm looking forward to that. I'd love to see a Canucks/Red Wings playoff game that ends after only one or two overtimes.

A few more thoughts and interesting stats:

• Look out for San Jose! It's their year!!!1!
  
• I see a Buffalo/Washington Eastern Conference Final. Buffalo intimidates me with their skill and hippy goaltender, but they're not a very physical team and I'm not sure how their game will translate into the playoffs. Washington is kamikaze. It'll either work or not work, but no matter what it'll be entertaining.
  
• How in god's name is Ottawa doing as well as they are?! Only their PK is above average (5th). They're mediocre to bad in literally everything else. Basically, they've won games without the ability to score more goals than their opponent. I don't understand. Whoever gets them in the first round is basically getting a bye. Nashville is similar, though not quite as bad.
  
• Chicago is 27th in SV%. Huet has been terrible and Niemi decent-ish. The Blackhawks do a good job of shielding this weakness (fewest shots against/game in the league), and Detroit won the Cup without standout goaltending, but this isn't Chris Osgood-level mediocre goaltending. This is bad goaltending, and I think it could hurt them a lot in the postseason.
• Colorado and Montreal are the opposite of Chicago- they let up too many shots and rely too heavily on their goalies. However, Colorado can actually score goals, while Montreal can't.
• Phoenix has 17 OT wins, 12 in the shootout. I'll figure out a way to relate this to my conspiracy theory about the Coyotes. I'm suspicious about a team owned by the NHL doing as well as Phoenix is doing, especially since they haven't had a history of doing particularly well. Sure, it may just be a coincidence, but between my obsession with numbers and my proneness to paranoia, I'm basically the John Nash of Bruins fans. I'll stick with the conspiracy explanation.
  
• My god, are Edmonton and Toronto bad.

Let's hope the Bruins put on a good show against Buffalo tonight. They need to.

WRA 3/18

The Bruins can't play consistently enough for me to have an opinion about them anymore. It doesn't even seem worth it to hate them right now. Here are some numbers.

1. San Jose (4.43)
2. Chicago (7.29)
3. Vancouver (7.57)
4. Colorado (7.86)
5. Buffalo (9.29)
6. Washington (10.14)
7. Philadelphia (10.57)
8. Detroit (10.86)
9. Los Angeles (11.43)
10. Montreal (11.57)
11. New Jersey (11.71)
12. Phoenix (13.29)
13. BOSTON (13.43)
14. St. Louis (14.14)
15. Pittsburgh (14.86)
16. Calgary (15.14)
17. NY Rangers (16.00)
18. Anaheim (16.71)
19. Nashville (17.14)
20. Minnesota (17.29)
21. Atlanta (19.00)
22. Dallas (19.29)
23. Carolina (19.86)
23. Ottawa (19.86)
25. Tampta Bay (20.29)
26. Florida (21.14)
27. Columbus (21.43)
28. NY Islanders (24.00)
29. Toronto (26.57)
30. Edmonton (27.29)

Despite the large time gap between stats (sorry), there are surprisingly few big changes in the stats. Carolina has continued their ascent from the land of the terrible to the land of the mediocre non-threats. Detroit has shot up 7 slots, due in large part to offense. They went from 24th in goals for to 16th in goals for in about a month. Their special teams play also improved.

None of the Bruins' stats changed dramatically. Their powerplay went from 15th to 20th, which is something, but nothing else changed much for them. The penalty kill is first in the league. Whoop-de-freakin'-doo. They'd better win this weekend.

WRA 2/11/10 and Ovechkin Is a Brat

Before I get to the stats, I just have to say that I no longer like Alex Ovechkin. Paula and I (especially Paula...you'll hear about it) have always been fond of Ovechkin and his wacky antics. While I'm no fan of obnoxiously arrogant players that won't shut up (such as Avery or Roenick), I didn't mind Ovechkin's clowning. His insanity seemed endearingly harmless, and I respected him as a player enough to accept it. I thought he was a puppy, just needing some vodka and to be let out to play hockey every now and then. I even argued with people who claimed he was a dirty player, saying he was physical and passionate.

The last time the Bruins played the Capitals, on February 2nd, Johnny Boychuck laid a solid hit on Ovechkin. Alex took this very personally and for the rest of his shift tracked Johnny Boy down and hit him three more times. I actually understand that part. While it was a little bit of a hissy fit, Ovechkin didn't do anything illegal. He was standing up for himself. What he did at the end of the shift is what upset me. He went to dump the puck into the Bruins zone with time and plenty of space down the boards. Instead, Ovechkin shot it straight at Johnny Boy, hitting him in the upper chest. A player like Ovechkin knows exactly where he's shooting the puck. Retaliating for a hit with more legal, hard hits? Hate your target, but respect your style. Retaliating for a hit by shooting a puck at the guy's face on purpose? When that face is as nice as Jonny Boychuck's? Fuck you, Alexander Ovechkin.

In related news, Johnny Boychuck's face was broken in the game against Vancouver. First Andrew Ference's groin and now this. Curse you, hockey gods!

Onto the stats.

1. San Jose (2.43)
2. Chicago (5.71)
3. Vancouver (7.86)
4. Buffalo (8.00)
5. Colorado (9.57)
6. Washington (10.43)
7. Montreal (11.43)
8. New Jersey (11.57)
9. Philadelphia (11.71)
10. BOSTON (12.71)
11. Phoenix (13.00)
12. Los Angeles (13.57)
13. NY Rangers (14.14)
14. Calgary (15.00)
15. Detroit (15.57)
16. Anaheim (15.71)
17. Ottawa (16.14)
18. Pittsburgh (16.29)
19. Tampa Bay (16.86)
20. St. Louis (17.57)
21. Atlanta (17.86)
22. Dallas (18.14)
23. Nashville (18.29)
24. Minnesota (18.43)
25. Columbus (19.57)
26. Tampa Bay (16.86)
27. Carolina (22.00)
28. Toronto (24.43)
29. Edmonton (26.14)
30. NY Islanders (26.86)

San Jose has Bruins-last-year kind of good numbers. Now all they need is Marian Hossa, and they're sure to win the Cup! But seriously, they're 1st in Save%, 2nd in goals for, and 3rd in goals against, power play, and penalty kill. That's balance.

The Bruins are, for the third week in a row, 30th in goals for. Though they've played better recently, it's clear that they're not a well-balanced team. Some people think they're one difference maker away from being there, but is it really worth the potential price tag? The Bruins have only shown flashes of the chemistry and winning system they had last year. They haven't played with enough confidence to be the opportunistic team they were back then, capitalizing on every mistake with a deadly transition game. When they do make good plays, no one player has consistently come through to finish the job. We need help, but can one passionate goal scorer really make enough of a difference? Possibly, yeah. As long as the price tag isn't too high, I'm down. I'm sick of mediocrity.

WRA 2/1/10

1. San Jose (2.57)
2. Chicago (5.57)
3. Buffalo (6.29)
4. Vancouver (6.57)
5. Washington (8.29)
6. New Jersey (9.57)
6. Colorado (9.57)
8. Montreal (13.29)
9. BOSTON (13.43)
9. Los Angeles (13.43)
9. Phoenix (13.43)
12. Philadelphia (13.57)
13. Calgary (14.29)
14. Pittsburgh (15.00)
15. Florida (16.43)
16. NY Rangers (16.57)
17. Atlanta (16.71)
17. St. Louis (16.71)
19. Detroit (17.14)
20. Ottawa (17.29)
21. Anaheim (17.86)
22. Minnesota (18.86)
23. Dallas (19.71)
23. Nashville (19.71)
25. Tampa Bay (20.29)
26. Columbus (20.71)
27. Carolina (22.29)
28. Edmonton (25.00)
29. NY Islanders (25.57)
30. Toronto (25.71)

You're welcome, Carolina. Ever since beating our sorry asses a few games ago, they've gone on something of a tear, and it shows. Beating teams 4-1 or 5-1 does your stats good. There's a gridlock of teams here like there are in the standings right now. Comparing the two would be a good way to see who's likely to drop out.

Thankfully, we're holding our own despite recording our first point in two weeks in Saturday's OTL to the Kings (the last point before that, on January 16th, was also an OTL to the Kings). In that game the Bruins looked much better than they have in a while, which admittedly isn't difficult. Having Savvy back is huge, of course, but Marco Sturm was the real shot in the arm on Saturday. He had a jump in his step and played a very smart game. Hopefully the team keeps up the effort and chemistry tomorrow against the Caps, and beyond that.

Weighted Rank Average (WRA): 1/22/10

This is a stat that I do about every week starting in January. It is a slightly weighted average of a team's ranking in five different statistics (goals for/game, goals against/game, power play %, penalty kill %, and save %). The formula is:
[(GFA*2)+(GAA*2)+PP%+PK%+SV%]/7
with GFA being a team's rank in goals for/game, etc. For example, here's a comparison of San Jose and Carolina*:

San Jose: GFA-2nd GAA-4th PP%-5th PK%-1st SV%-2nd
[(2*2)+(4*2)+5+1+2]/7= 2.86

Carolina: GFA-28th GAA-28th PP%-20th PK%-24th SV%-29th
[(28*2)+(28*2)+20+24+29]/7= 26.43

At the end of the season I do a playoff version (WRAP) that's the same except that I also add their conference standing (and divide by 8). That stat predicted the Stanley Cup winner for three years in a row...until last year. The Bruins had the best numbers I'd ever seen.

Moving on to the last WRA stats, from 1/22.

1. San Jose (2.86)
2. Chicago (4.86)
3. Vancouver (6.29)
4. Buffalo (6.43)
5. New Jersey (8.71)
6. Washington (9.71)
7. Colorado (10.71)
8. NY Rangers (12.29)
9. Philadelphia (12.86)
10. Phoenix (13.43)
11. BOSTON (13.57)
12. Montreal (14.00)
13. Los Angeles (14.86)
14. Calgary (15.71)
15. Pittsburgh (15.86)
16. Detroit (16.43)
17. Florida (16.57)
18. Anaheim (17.00)
19. Atlanta (17.29)
19. St. Louis (17.29)
21. Nashville (18.29)
21. Minnesota (18.29)
23. Ottawa (18.86)
24. Dallas (19.14)
25. Tampa Bay (20.43)
25. Columbus (20.43)
27. NY Islanders (22.57)
28. Edmonton (24.14)
29. Toronto (25.14)
30. Carolina (26.43)



*Did I use this comparison because I'm bitter about losing to Carolina the other night? Yes. Did it make me feel better? Nothing really can.