These stats are interesting. First, here are the current WRA numbers. (And a link to the formula in case anyone needs a refresher.)
1. Boston (3.86)
2. St. Louis (4.00)
3. Pittsburgh (5.29)
4. San Jose (7.57)
5. Chicago (8.86)
6. Anaheim (10.29)
7. Colorado (10.86)
7. NY Rangers (10.86)
9. Montreal (11.14)
10. Tampa Bay (13.43)
10. New Jersey (13.43)
10. Philadelphia (13.43)
13. Los Angeles (13.57)
14. Minnesota (14.14)
15. Columbus (14.29)
16. Washington (15.14)
17. Detroit (15.71)
18. Phoenix (16.43)
19. Toronto (17.29)
20. Dallas (17.43)
21. Winnipeg (18.29)
22. Vancouver (19.71)
23. Ottawa (20.00)
24. Carolina (20.14)
25. Edmonton (22.71)
26. Buffalo (23.00)
27. Nashville (23.43)
28. Calgary (23.83)
29. NY Islanders (24.57)
30. Florida (27.14)
Taken as they are, these numbers are not a great guide. For example, Colorado and the Rangers are not equal teams, but they show up tied. To help with this, I've separated the teams into four categories: the Elite, the Very Good, the Rest and the teams not even worth mentioning. Here's what you need to know about them as playoff teams.
The Elite (should win)
The Bruins and St. Louis are both in the top 10 in all five categories I use. It is rare to have two teams that are that strong in everything--last year there were none. It's also rare for those teams to win a Cup (just ask San Jose in 2010, Vancouver in 2011, Nashville in 2012, and Vancouver again in 2012).
Pittsburgh narrowly missed being another super-balanced team, but their SV% is 11th in the league. Despite being close to the top 10, goaltending is actually a pretty big weakness for the Penguins. Marc-Andre Fleury has been worse in the playoffs than the regular season every single year of his career, including juniors and AHL, except for one, 2008. Every year besides 2008--and remember this is his entire life we're talking about, not just with the Penguins--he has collapsed once the regular season ends. Pittsburgh should plan accordingly.
San Jose was also close--everything but their PP (22nd) was top-10. Unlike the Penguins, this isn't a huge weakness. Many, many teams have had strong playoff runs without a strong power play. In fact, last year's Stanley Cup-winning Blackhawks were also in the top 10 in every category but PP. Their PP rank? Also 22nd. The Sharks shouldn't worry too much.
The Very Good (could win)
Some combinations of weaknesses send up a red flag, fairly or not. One of them for me is a weak PK and a weak goaltender. If you can't shut down an opponent's best, your goalie better be able to bail you out (2011 Boston Bruins: 16th-ranked PK, 1st-ranked goalie). Or, if your goaltender is weak, you better know how to keep the puck far, far away from him (2010 Chicago Blackhawks: 23rd in SV%, 4th in PK). The 2014 Chicago Blackhawks are sending up that red flag, hanging in the bottom half of the league in both PK and SV%. Crawford has always been hot and cold, and the Blackhawks have always been able to bail him out when he's cold. But this year it seems he's cold, and they might not have the defensive team in front of him to hide it. This is why they aren't in the elite category.
Anaheim, at one point the team to beat, has fallen a bit due to their weak special teams and a lackluster statistical year from Jonas Hiller in net. While their lack of coordination on the PP/PK may indicate a coaching weakness (but probably not), Hiller can stand on his head whenever he feels like it. He's second behind Tuukka in shutouts despite being 25th in SV%.
Colorado clearly lacks defense, but they can score and they have a fantastic goalie, which can be a killer playoff combination. A disciplined, veteran team could find a way to exploit their defense, and the West is full of those types of teams. However, Patrick Roy is much, much crazier than his coaching rivals. I doubt Bruce Boudreau could put himself deep enough into Patrick Roy's crazy shoes to figure out what he's thinking. I know I can't. The Avs aren't a bad team to bet on.
The Rest (shouldn't win, but might)
Do you know who the coach of Tampa Bay is? No, it's not Guy Boucher. If it were still Guy Boucher, they would be in the above category. It's Jon Cooper. Jon Cooper and his team are going to do well in the playoffs. They can score goals and Ben Bishop has proven he is a top goaltender in the NHL. But their special teams leave something to be desired, and I blame Jon Cooper. Unlike Guy Boucher, who is 100% Bond villain, Jon Cooper looks like the dad from a Disney Channel show. After playing hockey at Notre Dame, but not the Notre Dame you're thinking of, Jon married a woman named Jessie and promptly named their kids Julia, Josephine, and Jonathan. Guy Boucher, on the other hand, won't even tell his kids where he got his awesome scar because it was "not hockey-related" and he wants it to be "a little enigma". Yeah, Jon Cooper sucks.
In my mind, Montreal and the Rangers are ranked too low in GF to be a threat to win the Cup. Statistically, they are very similar teams. Montreal is 20th in GF and the Rangers are 18th. Both have mediocre power plays, excellent defense and a star goaltender. They won't be easy to play in the playoffs, especially Montreal, who acquired Tomas Vanek to help their offense. But if their numbers are any indication of their offensive capabilities, they're both beatable, and the best teams should do just that.
You know who's fun? Philly. They're back to being that wacky team that scores a ton of goals and then looks back, dejected, as their goaltender lets in even more. Their PP is pretty good and, in spite of a bad goaltender and defense and the fact that a PK is nothing but those things, their PK is even better. Nobody is going to bet on the Flyers to win, but by god, they're going to do something. If the Bruins get knocked out, I'm rooting for a Flyers/Colorado final, because there is no possible way that doesn't end in Patrick Roy fighting Ray Emery on the Philadelphia bench, and I need that in my life.
Los Angeles and Minnesota are the same as always--boring, defensive teams that can't score, ever. Dallas can sort of score, and Phoenix has no strengths whatsoever. The West will be won by the top. (Important to note: I also thought this the last time LA won the Cup.)
The only other teams worth mentioning are Columbus and Toronto. Columbus is better than their numbers, as they were missing Sergei Bobrovsky for 12 games but now have him back. Not only that, but he's getting better. His SV% was .910 when he returned from injury; now it's .919. They're not great by any means, but they can score and they have the goalie, and that counts for a lot.
If it weren't for Jonathan Bernier, Toronto would not be in a playoff spot. Bernier alone won't get them far in the playoffs, though. I would love Toronto as a first-round matchup.
I don't expect things to change much between now and the end of the season, so for all intents and purposes this is what the playoffs are going to look like. Enjoy.
March 20, 2014
April 13, 2012
Western Conference Playoff Picks 2012
As is customary, I'm posting half of my picks after the playoffs already started. I swear, though, I picked these before they played.
The best teams in the West are Vancouver, Detroit, and Nashville, but because of matchups only one of them will likely make it to the Conference Finals. As a result, I predict a very anticlimactic Western Conference Final featuring Vancouver and Phoenix. Go Yotes?
(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (8) Los Angeles Kings
Everyone knows the Kings' story this year: they can't score on you, and you can't score on them. Defensively, Vancouver has similar numbers, though LA does have a slight edge. Offensively, Vancouver should blow them out of the water. A low-scoring series benefits the Kings, but Vancouver can play that game, too, if they need to. Vancouver lets up more shots than LA, so they need the good Luongo to show up. If he does, the Kings can't win.
Vancouver in 6
(2) St. Louis Blues vs. (7) San Jose Sharks
St. Louis is good, but painfully bottom-heavy. San Jose is more balanced in that they're mediocre at everything except the penalty kill, which they are awful at. The Sharks don't have the goaltending to win a defensive battle, but don't quite have the offense to make this series anything else. They lack scoring past their first line, which is why they score over 25% of their goals on the powerplay. This series will be boring and I'm planning on watching exactly none of it.
St. Louis in 7
(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (6) Chicago Blackhawks
I've seen a lot of people picking Chicago in this series, which baffles me. Statistically speaking, they're the worst team in the playoffs. They've got the 5th best offense in the NHL, but are near the bottom of the league in pretty much everything else. Phoenix isn't a great team by any means, but they have a solid goaltender and their scoring at even strength is nearly as good as Chicago's. Now that Ulf Samuelsson is safely back in Sweden, I don't even feel bad about picking the Coyotes to win.
Phoenix in 5
(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Picking this series has given me fits. The more numbers I look at, the more confused I am. Nashville has better special teams, but Detroit gets a lot more powerplay time than they give up. Detroit is better at even strength, but they lack quality goaltending. That's all right, though, because their shots for/against ratio is fantastic, while Nashville's is the worst in the playoffs. Somehow, though, Nashville has the most balanced scoring out of playoff teams (only 26% of their goals come from their top line). Detroit is second. I give Detroit the edge in this series, but I'm fully prepared to be wrong.
Detroit in 7
The best teams in the West are Vancouver, Detroit, and Nashville, but because of matchups only one of them will likely make it to the Conference Finals. As a result, I predict a very anticlimactic Western Conference Final featuring Vancouver and Phoenix. Go Yotes?
(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (8) Los Angeles Kings
Everyone knows the Kings' story this year: they can't score on you, and you can't score on them. Defensively, Vancouver has similar numbers, though LA does have a slight edge. Offensively, Vancouver should blow them out of the water. A low-scoring series benefits the Kings, but Vancouver can play that game, too, if they need to. Vancouver lets up more shots than LA, so they need the good Luongo to show up. If he does, the Kings can't win.
Vancouver in 6
(2) St. Louis Blues vs. (7) San Jose Sharks
St. Louis is good, but painfully bottom-heavy. San Jose is more balanced in that they're mediocre at everything except the penalty kill, which they are awful at. The Sharks don't have the goaltending to win a defensive battle, but don't quite have the offense to make this series anything else. They lack scoring past their first line, which is why they score over 25% of their goals on the powerplay. This series will be boring and I'm planning on watching exactly none of it.
St. Louis in 7
(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (6) Chicago Blackhawks
I've seen a lot of people picking Chicago in this series, which baffles me. Statistically speaking, they're the worst team in the playoffs. They've got the 5th best offense in the NHL, but are near the bottom of the league in pretty much everything else. Phoenix isn't a great team by any means, but they have a solid goaltender and their scoring at even strength is nearly as good as Chicago's. Now that Ulf Samuelsson is safely back in Sweden, I don't even feel bad about picking the Coyotes to win.
Phoenix in 5
(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings
Picking this series has given me fits. The more numbers I look at, the more confused I am. Nashville has better special teams, but Detroit gets a lot more powerplay time than they give up. Detroit is better at even strength, but they lack quality goaltending. That's all right, though, because their shots for/against ratio is fantastic, while Nashville's is the worst in the playoffs. Somehow, though, Nashville has the most balanced scoring out of playoff teams (only 26% of their goals come from their top line). Detroit is second. I give Detroit the edge in this series, but I'm fully prepared to be wrong.
Detroit in 7
April 11, 2012
Eastern Conference Playoff Picks 2012
The Eastern Conference Finals should feature the Rangers vs. the Bruins or Penguins, with the Bruins/Penguins winning and moving onto the Stanley Cup Finals. This is barring major upsets, which is a big "if". There are upsets every year.
Based on that profile, the team that looks most like an upsetting team this year is the Pittsburgh Penguins, which is hardly helpful. So much for predicting the improbable.
(1) New York Rangers vs. (8) Ottawa Senators
The Senators are a great scoring team and are tougher than I always assume they are, but they don't have much of a chance in this series. The Rangers' offense can be shut down, but not by a sieve-like defense and Craig Anderson, who is not what I could call a "starting" goaltender. Ottawa will score enough to make things interesting, but unless Anderson pulls a .940 out of his a**, they're not good enough to win this one.
Rangers in 6
(2) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Washington Capitals
In my mind, the Caps are the worst team in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They're 13th in scoring and bottom half of the league in everything else. They don't have a statistical strength, and their supposed strength (Ovechkin) has always been easily handled by the Bruins' de. Also (and this may be a bit of an inside joke for Bruins fans): Dennis Wideman.
Bruins in 5
(3) Florida Panthers vs. (6) New Jersey Devils
Florida's stagnant offense could really use a matchup like this against a weak goaltender. Unfortunately for them, the Devils' defense has done a remarkable job of shielding their goalies all year, letting up the 2nd fewest shots per game and owning the league's best penalty kill. Jose Theodore thrives in the first round, and the Devils may have trouble scoring on him, but the Panthers de is terrible and I believe they will score in the end. Both of these teams are incredibly beatable, but New Jersey seems to be better coached.
New Jersey in 7
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers
These teams are very similar. Both are offensive powerhouses with weak goalies, a surprisingly successful formula in the postseason. The only noticeable difference is their penalty kills- Pittsburgh is 3rd and Philly is 17th. This speaks to the different quality of defensemen they have, which will be very important considering the quality of goalies involved. Philly leads the league in PP time, which means they score about 1/4 of their goals with the man advantage, as opposed to Pittsburgh's 1/5 (and Boston's Conference-low 1/6). With fewer powerplays awarded in the postseason, Philly could see their scoring drop. This series could really play out any way, with either team coming out on top, but Pittsburgh has that look about them this year.
Pittsburgh in 7
There's no telling for sure which team will make an improbable run, but upsetting teams in recent years have had a certain look to them. They almost all get goaltending above and beyond what they got in the regular season- key to stopping powerhouse teams that outclass you up front. They also have good PP and PK, despite mediocre or lopsided offensive and defensive numbers. This is a sign of a coach who knows how to coach situationally given what he has, which can have a greater impact in the playoffs. Think of the 1980 Olympics, when the US beat a better USSR team because they were coached for that exact matchup. Without Kurt Russell, they didn't have a chance.
God bless America.
Based on that profile, the team that looks most like an upsetting team this year is the Pittsburgh Penguins, which is hardly helpful. So much for predicting the improbable.
(1) New York Rangers vs. (8) Ottawa Senators
The Senators are a great scoring team and are tougher than I always assume they are, but they don't have much of a chance in this series. The Rangers' offense can be shut down, but not by a sieve-like defense and Craig Anderson, who is not what I could call a "starting" goaltender. Ottawa will score enough to make things interesting, but unless Anderson pulls a .940 out of his a**, they're not good enough to win this one.
Rangers in 6
(2) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Washington Capitals
In my mind, the Caps are the worst team in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They're 13th in scoring and bottom half of the league in everything else. They don't have a statistical strength, and their supposed strength (Ovechkin) has always been easily handled by the Bruins' de. Also (and this may be a bit of an inside joke for Bruins fans): Dennis Wideman.
Bruins in 5
(3) Florida Panthers vs. (6) New Jersey Devils
Florida's stagnant offense could really use a matchup like this against a weak goaltender. Unfortunately for them, the Devils' defense has done a remarkable job of shielding their goalies all year, letting up the 2nd fewest shots per game and owning the league's best penalty kill. Jose Theodore thrives in the first round, and the Devils may have trouble scoring on him, but the Panthers de is terrible and I believe they will score in the end. Both of these teams are incredibly beatable, but New Jersey seems to be better coached.
New Jersey in 7
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers
These teams are very similar. Both are offensive powerhouses with weak goalies, a surprisingly successful formula in the postseason. The only noticeable difference is their penalty kills- Pittsburgh is 3rd and Philly is 17th. This speaks to the different quality of defensemen they have, which will be very important considering the quality of goalies involved. Philly leads the league in PP time, which means they score about 1/4 of their goals with the man advantage, as opposed to Pittsburgh's 1/5 (and Boston's Conference-low 1/6). With fewer powerplays awarded in the postseason, Philly could see their scoring drop. This series could really play out any way, with either team coming out on top, but Pittsburgh has that look about them this year.
Pittsburgh in 7
April 4, 2012
Is Scoring or Goaltending More Important to Winning a Cup?
Growing up, certain facts about hockey were drilled into my head as common knowledge. Bobby Orr was the greatest hockey player ever. Ulf Samuelsson is the physical incarnation of evil. The goaltender is a team's most important player in the playoffs.
I realize now that the first two "common knowledge" facts are only common knowledge in the city of Boston. For years, though, I still believed goaltending was the deciding factor in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I'm starting to suspect that the last fact has more to do with Ken Dryden than statistics.
My parents saw Dryden steal a 1971 series for the Canadiens against a Bruins team that was arguably better than the ones that won the cup in 1970 and 1972. This left an impression in their minds: a hot goaltender can ruin everything. It's true that in the most surprising recent upsets (Montreal beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2010, Tampa beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2011), unexpectedly good goaltending was the difference. But overall, goaltending appears to be more of a wildcard factor- capable of stealing series, but not a Stanley Cup.
Since the lockout, there is no discernible pattern in the goaltender quality of Stanley Cup winners. Their regular season SV% ranges from 1st (the 2011 Bruins) to 23rd (2010 Blackhawks). Only Boston and Anaheim had goaltenders in the top 10 in SV%.
Other factors are also all over the board. Goals against displays a weak connection to winning, at best. Special teams have no bearing, which makes sense given that fewer penalties are typically called in the playoffs. Powerplay quality is especially irrelevant.
It appears that the one weakness a team cannot afford to have in the playoffs is lack of scoring. Every winner since the lockout has been top 10 in regular season scoring. In fact, out of the 12 teams to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals since the lockout, 11 were among the top 10 in scoring. Only the 2006 Edmonton Oilers, at 15th, were below this marker.
The Oilers are an interesting case. One could argue that, had Roloson not gotten hurt in the Finals that year, they would be the exception to this rule. However, he did, and they lost, so the rule stands: your team must be top 10 in scoring to win a Stanley Cup, no matter how well your goaltender plays.
Even last year's Bruins prove this rule. Tim Thomas played phenomenally in the Finals, but he couldn't have won that series alone. He had a 1.67 GAA in his three losses- hardly something to complain about. It wasn't until the team started scoring that the Bruins won games.
This all means that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with their incredible offense and incredibly mediocre goaltending, have a better chance at the Cup than the New York Rangers or St. Louis, who are both out of the top 10 in scoring. In all likelihoods, neither the Rangers nor St. Louis will even make the Finals.
Dryden won the Cup for Montreal in 1971. It's possible that Lundqvist or Elliot are good enough to break this rule. But things have changed since the 70's. If I were a betting gal, I would keep my money on Boston, Detroit, or Pennsylvania.
I realize now that the first two "common knowledge" facts are only common knowledge in the city of Boston. For years, though, I still believed goaltending was the deciding factor in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I'm starting to suspect that the last fact has more to do with Ken Dryden than statistics.
My parents saw Dryden steal a 1971 series for the Canadiens against a Bruins team that was arguably better than the ones that won the cup in 1970 and 1972. This left an impression in their minds: a hot goaltender can ruin everything. It's true that in the most surprising recent upsets (Montreal beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2010, Tampa beating Washington and Pittsburgh in 2011), unexpectedly good goaltending was the difference. But overall, goaltending appears to be more of a wildcard factor- capable of stealing series, but not a Stanley Cup.
Since the lockout, there is no discernible pattern in the goaltender quality of Stanley Cup winners. Their regular season SV% ranges from 1st (the 2011 Bruins) to 23rd (2010 Blackhawks). Only Boston and Anaheim had goaltenders in the top 10 in SV%.
Other factors are also all over the board. Goals against displays a weak connection to winning, at best. Special teams have no bearing, which makes sense given that fewer penalties are typically called in the playoffs. Powerplay quality is especially irrelevant.
It appears that the one weakness a team cannot afford to have in the playoffs is lack of scoring. Every winner since the lockout has been top 10 in regular season scoring. In fact, out of the 12 teams to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals since the lockout, 11 were among the top 10 in scoring. Only the 2006 Edmonton Oilers, at 15th, were below this marker.
The Oilers are an interesting case. One could argue that, had Roloson not gotten hurt in the Finals that year, they would be the exception to this rule. However, he did, and they lost, so the rule stands: your team must be top 10 in scoring to win a Stanley Cup, no matter how well your goaltender plays.
Even last year's Bruins prove this rule. Tim Thomas played phenomenally in the Finals, but he couldn't have won that series alone. He had a 1.67 GAA in his three losses- hardly something to complain about. It wasn't until the team started scoring that the Bruins won games.
This all means that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with their incredible offense and incredibly mediocre goaltending, have a better chance at the Cup than the New York Rangers or St. Louis, who are both out of the top 10 in scoring. In all likelihoods, neither the Rangers nor St. Louis will even make the Finals.
Dryden won the Cup for Montreal in 1971. It's possible that Lundqvist or Elliot are good enough to break this rule. But things have changed since the 70's. If I were a betting gal, I would keep my money on Boston, Detroit, or Pennsylvania.
February 6, 2012
WRA 2/6/2012
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (4.29)
2. Vancouver (4.71)
3. NY Rangers (8.86)
4. Pittsburgh (9.14)
5. Nashville (9.29)
6. Detroit (10.14)
7. San Jose (10.71)
8. Los Angeles (13.57)
9. St. Louis (14.00)
10. Edmonton (14.14)
11. Philadelphia (14.43)
12. Montreal (14.86)
13. Toronto (15.00)
14. Phoenix (15.43)
15. Calgary (15.86)
15. Florida (15.86)
15. Washington (15.86)
18. New Jersey (16.00)
19. Dallas (16.71)
19. Minnesota (16.71)
21. Chicago (17.57)
22. Winnipeg (17.86)
23. NY Islanders (18.29)
24. Colorado (18.43)
25. Anaheim (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.14)
27. Buffalo (21.71)
28. Tampa Bay (22.29)
29. Carolina (23.00)
30. Columbus (28.29)
1. Boston (4.29)
2. Vancouver (4.71)
3. NY Rangers (8.86)
4. Pittsburgh (9.14)
5. Nashville (9.29)
6. Detroit (10.14)
7. San Jose (10.71)
8. Los Angeles (13.57)
9. St. Louis (14.00)
10. Edmonton (14.14)
11. Philadelphia (14.43)
12. Montreal (14.86)
13. Toronto (15.00)
14. Phoenix (15.43)
15. Calgary (15.86)
15. Florida (15.86)
15. Washington (15.86)
18. New Jersey (16.00)
19. Dallas (16.71)
19. Minnesota (16.71)
21. Chicago (17.57)
22. Winnipeg (17.86)
23. NY Islanders (18.29)
24. Colorado (18.43)
25. Anaheim (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.14)
27. Buffalo (21.71)
28. Tampa Bay (22.29)
29. Carolina (23.00)
30. Columbus (28.29)
- The Bruins are still the best team in the league, though Vancouver is close behind. They're the elite teams in the league right now, and will likely finish the year first and second. I've never seen the top teams so close before.
- The next level of teams includes the Rangers, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Detroit, and San Jose.
- Florida was in this group, but in the past two months have fallen off the chart in nearly every category. Lack of competition in their division means they'll make the playoffs, but they won't get far.
- Nashville, on the other hand, has steadily improved in both offense and defense to become one of the better teams in the league. They're a very hardworking team and relatively balanced, so I don't believe their success is a fluke or temporary. They could benefit from adding an elite forward, however.
- The Rangers GF and PP dropped quite a bit in the past two months. Lundqvist can certainly carry this team a few rounds into the playoffs, but they could also benefit from adding a scorer, especially since Gaborik is due for an injury.
- Detroit's falling score is almost entirely due to suddenly shoddy special teams. Either these will improve, or the rest of the team will follow suit and drop off soon.
- Philadelphia's goaltending continues to worsen, despite their steady offensive output. If they don't address this serious problem, they'll get killed in the playoffs. Again.
- Pittsburgh also has goaltending issues. They're 22nd in SV%, a drop from 15th earlier in the year. Somehow, though, their GA has actually improved. The rest of the team is rallying to make up for their subpar goaltender, but without a backstop this pace is unsustainable.
- Besides the Bruins, there isn't a real threat in the Northeast Division. Montreal has great defensemen, but little else. Toronto and Ottawa have scoring, but little else. Buffalo has little. There will probably be four Atlantic teams in the playoffs this year for that reason.
- Los Angeles and Minnesota have to find a way to score to be successful. Their goaltending has put both teams in a playoff spot for the time being, but they can't maintain that position while 30th and 29th in scoring, respectively.
- The Oilers flirted with being one of the better teams in the league, but are now in the middle of the pack. They should be doing slightly better in the standings than they are, or maybe just slightly worse in these stats. It depends if they can improve defensively.
- Buffalo's decline has been dramatic and pretty much linear. They've gone from being one of the better teams in the league in December to being in the lowest class of teams now. I actually expect this to improve, though I won't be shocked if it doesn't.
- That lowest class also includes Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the All-Star of Suck, Columbus. There is no hope in Columbus. That's what you get for being a douche, Jeff Carter.
December 20, 2011
WRA 12/20/2011
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (3.00)
2. Vancouver (4.86)
3. Detroit (7.14)
4. NY Rangers (7.86)
5. Pittsburgh (9.00)
6. Florida (10.14)
7. Nashville (11.43)
8. Philadelphia (12.00)
9. Minnesota (12.14)
10. Edmonton (12.29)
11. San Jose (13.29)
12. Chicago (14.14)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
14. Buffalo (14.71)
15. Los Angeles (15.43)
16. Montreal (15.71)
17. Dallas (16.00)
18. Winnipeg (16.71)
19. Washington (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.00)
21. Phoenix (17.14)
22. Toronto (17.57)
23. Calgary (18.00)
24. Colorado (20.14)
25. Ottawa (20.57)
26. Anaheim (22.00)
27. Tampa Bay (22.57)
28. NY Islanders (24.71)
29. Carolina (26.00)
30. Columbus (27.71)
1. Boston (3.00)
2. Vancouver (4.86)
3. Detroit (7.14)
4. NY Rangers (7.86)
5. Pittsburgh (9.00)
6. Florida (10.14)
7. Nashville (11.43)
8. Philadelphia (12.00)
9. Minnesota (12.14)
10. Edmonton (12.29)
11. San Jose (13.29)
12. Chicago (14.14)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
14. Buffalo (14.71)
15. Los Angeles (15.43)
16. Montreal (15.71)
17. Dallas (16.00)
18. Winnipeg (16.71)
19. Washington (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.00)
21. Phoenix (17.14)
22. Toronto (17.57)
23. Calgary (18.00)
24. Colorado (20.14)
25. Ottawa (20.57)
26. Anaheim (22.00)
27. Tampa Bay (22.57)
28. NY Islanders (24.71)
29. Carolina (26.00)
30. Columbus (27.71)
- Having seemingly found a solution to their goaltending dilemma, Vancouver's score has shot up by more than 3 (last month it was 8.00). Unfortunately for them, the Bruins also improved in 4 of 5 categories. Their 11th ranked PP is the only category they aren't in the top 3. Boston is still the best team in the league right now.
- Detroit continues to make me nervous. Their offense has really picked it up in the past month, and Howard continues to have a good year. Their only real weakness is the PK, which doesn't help the Bruins much as we rely on our 5-on-5 play to win games.
- Based on this, I see a Boston-Detroit Stanley Cup Final. Vancouver may be ahead now, but they still don't seem sure about who their starter is in net. Without consistency from one of their goaltenders, it will be difficult to make a long postseason run.
- Columbus is bottom-5 in every category. Ugly stuff going on in Ohio this year.
- Minnesota and Chicago will never make it to the Finals if they don't address their offense and defense, respectively.
- Despite a seeming rollercoaster ride of emotions, Pittsburgh's numbers have stayed steady. This isn't good news for them. They desperately need their goaltending to improve. Philadelphia is in the same boat.
November 30, 2011
WRA 11/30/2011
I usually wait until January to start doing these stats, but I couldn't help myself. Stats are way more fun when your team puts up good numbers, and the Bruins have been.
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (4.43)
2. Vancouver (8.00)
3. NY Rangers (8.29)
4. Pittsburgh (8.57)
5. Detroit (10.00)
6. Florida (10.43)
7. Phoenix (11.14)
8. San Jose (11.57)
9. Edmonton (11.71)
10. Buffalo (12.29)
11. Philadelphia (12.57)
12. Los Angeles (12.71)
13. Montreal (14.43)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
13. Toronto (14.43)
16. Minnesota (14.57)
17. Nashville (15.14)
18. Chicago (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.14)
20. Dallas (17.57)
21. Tampa Bay (18.14)
22. Washington (18.71)
23. Colorado (19.14)
23. Winnipeg (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.29)
26. Anaheim (21.86)
27. Calgary (22.14)
28. NY Islanders (23.71)
29. Carolina (25.86)
30. Columbus (26.71)
Some notes on this:
Weighted Rank Average formula here.
1. Boston (4.43)
2. Vancouver (8.00)
3. NY Rangers (8.29)
4. Pittsburgh (8.57)
5. Detroit (10.00)
6. Florida (10.43)
7. Phoenix (11.14)
8. San Jose (11.57)
9. Edmonton (11.71)
10. Buffalo (12.29)
11. Philadelphia (12.57)
12. Los Angeles (12.71)
13. Montreal (14.43)
13. St. Louis (14.43)
13. Toronto (14.43)
16. Minnesota (14.57)
17. Nashville (15.14)
18. Chicago (17.00)
19. New Jersey (17.14)
20. Dallas (17.57)
21. Tampa Bay (18.14)
22. Washington (18.71)
23. Colorado (19.14)
23. Winnipeg (19.14)
25. Ottawa (19.29)
26. Anaheim (21.86)
27. Calgary (22.14)
28. NY Islanders (23.71)
29. Carolina (25.86)
30. Columbus (26.71)
Some notes on this:
- Go Bruins. Our weakest number is PP%, at 13th. We are in the top 10 in every other category.
- It always makes me nervous when Detroit is good. Their PP% is 22nd in the league, bringing their score down a lot. They're a balanced team and will likely go far this year.
- I thought Pittsburgh would rocket up the charts once Crosby returned, but it isn't their offense that needs a boost. Their goaltending is 15th in the league. Unless that improves, I won't be very scared to face them in the playoffs.
- The "race for the bottom" will probably be between those bottom five teams. If I were a betting man, I would put money on Columbus.
- Congatulations to Florida for earning the title of The One Good Team In The Southeast this year.
- Minnesota has returned to its "winning" formula of scoring no goals but allowing slightly fewer. Other one-sided teams in this category include Phoenix, New Jersey, Florida, the Rangers, and to an extent Montreal. Most of these teams can thank their goaltender; Montreal can probably thank their defense.
- On the other side of things are the high-scoring but defensively challenged teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, Ottawa, Toronto, and to an extent Vancouver (this will change with their shiny new goalie, Cory Schneider, in net). Most of these teams can also thank their goaltenders for shabby defensive numbers. However, the numbers suggest that Toronto's problem is really their defense, and not Gustavsson.
- I have a theory that you can tell whether a team's defense or goaltender is responsible for their GAA based on their PK%. A goaltender can do less for a team on the penalty kill, so if a team's PK is worse than their goals against, it probably means the goaltender is carrying the team at even strength. For example, Minnesota is 4th in GA and 13th in PK. This would suggest that their goaltender is the main reason their GA is so good. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is 11th in GA and 3rd in PK. This would suggest their defense is playing a bigger role than their goalie. This doesn't work out for every team, but I find it does for most, especially if you also take SV% into account.
May 31, 2011
Stanley Cup Finals
Pictured: the last time the Boston Bruins were in the Stanley Cup Finals
There is no more feeling nervous and pre-upset. It's no longer bad luck to be hopeful. This is the Stanley Cup Finals. We're too close to winning it all to be afraid of losing. This is one of the best experiences of my life and it's nothing but fun.
Most people don't think the Bruins are all that close to the Stanley Cup. Standing in their way is the Vancouver Canucks, the best team in the league this year and numerically the best team I've ever seen. Everybody thinks they're going to win, including the Canucks themelves. The feeling in Vancouver seems to be one of jubilance and confidence.
This is an advantage for the Bruins. The feeling in Boston before this series was one of pure terror. Right now? Feistiness. We know we're the underdogs. Losing to the Canucks won't be letting us down once again-- it's expected. Instead of being terrified of the worst, we've finally accepted it. Oddly enough, this means we have more faith in the Bruins. It's not about being perfect, it's about fighting harder. They can do that. Boston is made to fight (the first one).
However, it's not the underdog story everyone is making it out to be. The Bruins have actually been better in the playoffs so far. We've scored more goals, let in fewer, and Timmy has been better than Roberto "Italian Stallion" Luongo. As usual, special teams have been our weakness. The Canucks have been slightly better at killing penalties and much, much better at scoring powerplay goals.
I actually believe this can be another advantage for the Bruins. As long as we don't let Brad Marchand off his leash, there will be fewer penalties called in the Finals. While we've been slightly better than the Canucks overall, we've been vastly better at even strength in the playoffs. Powerplay goals accounted for 1/3 of their total scoring and less than 1/10 of ours. To put that another way, at even strength, the Canucks scored 1.83 goals/game, and we scored 2.94.
Vancouver may have been the top offensive team in the regular season, but they're 8th in the playoffs and have only been +3 through 18 games (not counting empty net goals). The Bruins have been +11. To put that in perspective, if these teams had been +1 in every win and -1 in every loss, they would be +6. The Canucks have actually been subpar for making it this far in the postseason.
This is the Stanley Cup Finals-- nothing is certain. The more certain you are, the less you know. Canucks fans seem very certain. I hope they don't know what the Bruins capable of.
There is no more feeling nervous and pre-upset. It's no longer bad luck to be hopeful. This is the Stanley Cup Finals. We're too close to winning it all to be afraid of losing. This is one of the best experiences of my life and it's nothing but fun.
Most people don't think the Bruins are all that close to the Stanley Cup. Standing in their way is the Vancouver Canucks, the best team in the league this year and numerically the best team I've ever seen. Everybody thinks they're going to win, including the Canucks themelves. The feeling in Vancouver seems to be one of jubilance and confidence.
This is an advantage for the Bruins. The feeling in Boston before this series was one of pure terror. Right now? Feistiness. We know we're the underdogs. Losing to the Canucks won't be letting us down once again-- it's expected. Instead of being terrified of the worst, we've finally accepted it. Oddly enough, this means we have more faith in the Bruins. It's not about being perfect, it's about fighting harder. They can do that. Boston is made to fight (the first one).
However, it's not the underdog story everyone is making it out to be. The Bruins have actually been better in the playoffs so far. We've scored more goals, let in fewer, and Timmy has been better than Roberto "Italian Stallion" Luongo. As usual, special teams have been our weakness. The Canucks have been slightly better at killing penalties and much, much better at scoring powerplay goals.
I actually believe this can be another advantage for the Bruins. As long as we don't let Brad Marchand off his leash, there will be fewer penalties called in the Finals. While we've been slightly better than the Canucks overall, we've been vastly better at even strength in the playoffs. Powerplay goals accounted for 1/3 of their total scoring and less than 1/10 of ours. To put that another way, at even strength, the Canucks scored 1.83 goals/game, and we scored 2.94.
Vancouver may have been the top offensive team in the regular season, but they're 8th in the playoffs and have only been +3 through 18 games (not counting empty net goals). The Bruins have been +11. To put that in perspective, if these teams had been +1 in every win and -1 in every loss, they would be +6. The Canucks have actually been subpar for making it this far in the postseason.
This is the Stanley Cup Finals-- nothing is certain. The more certain you are, the less you know. Canucks fans seem very certain. I hope they don't know what the Bruins capable of.
May 27, 2011
It All Comes Down to This
Tonight the Bruins will play their 100th game this season. One game separates them from summer vacation and the opportunity to play for the most prized trophy in all of sports. The Stanley Cup. Sixty minutes of what is sure to be a grueling, physical battle. They will leave it all on the line tonight. When looking back at this series between the Bruins and Lightning, its been all about who can out-coach who, questionable calls by the officials and most of the games were won by special teams; or lack thereof. But tonight, the winner of this game will be the team who has the most heart.
These players have grown up their entire lives dreaming of this opportunity. This is why they play. The Bruins have proven to the league, the fans and most importantly themselves, that they are one of the top three teams in NHL. They need to stop overthinking their mistakes, stop second guessing themselves and just go out there and win 60 minutes of hockey. They're in this position for a reason. Sure they have league recognized talent; Vezina finalist Timmy in net, and Norris finalist Chara on defense. But it goes even further than techincal skill. They have the grit and tenacity. Lets be honest, they're a feisty bunch of assholes. The pieces are all in place and they're in control of their destiny. They can do it. I truly believe they can. Will they? We'll see.
All I know, is that words will not be able to describe the feeling. if the Bruins win tonight's game. If they lose, well...I know the drill. I'll retreat back home and ignore all aspects of hockey until maybe the draft or even training camp. I won't watch the Finals. But..if they win? Well, thats uncharted territory for me. I do know there will be alot of tears and a lot of joy. It's almost comical to me how if they win I'll cry my eyes out, and if they lose I'll be despondent, yes, but I won't let my emotions get the best of me.
I hope I'm crying tonight.
These players have grown up their entire lives dreaming of this opportunity. This is why they play. The Bruins have proven to the league, the fans and most importantly themselves, that they are one of the top three teams in NHL. They need to stop overthinking their mistakes, stop second guessing themselves and just go out there and win 60 minutes of hockey. They're in this position for a reason. Sure they have league recognized talent; Vezina finalist Timmy in net, and Norris finalist Chara on defense. But it goes even further than techincal skill. They have the grit and tenacity. Lets be honest, they're a feisty bunch of assholes. The pieces are all in place and they're in control of their destiny. They can do it. I truly believe they can. Will they? We'll see.
All I know, is that words will not be able to describe the feeling. if the Bruins win tonight's game. If they lose, well...I know the drill. I'll retreat back home and ignore all aspects of hockey until maybe the draft or even training camp. I won't watch the Finals. But..if they win? Well, thats uncharted territory for me. I do know there will be alot of tears and a lot of joy. It's almost comical to me how if they win I'll cry my eyes out, and if they lose I'll be despondent, yes, but I won't let my emotions get the best of me.
I hope I'm crying tonight.
May 21, 2011
The Five Stages of Being a Bruins Fan
Denial: My internal monologue during the third period went something like this: "This isn't happening. They can still win the game. Blowing a 3-0 lead is nothing new, but this is a different team. They'll come back."
Anger: Even other Bruins fans were trying to calm me down after the game and I may have broken a finger punching a picture I drew of Tomas Kaberle's face.
Bargaining: I already offered my soul for a Stanley Cup during game 4 in Montreal, but I reminded whoever it is that's taking me up on that offer that winning this game would help.
Depression:
Acceptance: I will not reach this stage until I drink enough $30 hotel white zinfandel to lose consciousness. Perhaps the saddest prospect of all.
Since I got back to our hotel room in Tampa, I've been alternating between anger and depression. I suspect this will continue until game 5.
As depressed/angry/drunk as I am, I don't believe we'll lose this series just because of this game. I hope the Bruins feel the same way.
Anger: Even other Bruins fans were trying to calm me down after the game and I may have broken a finger punching a picture I drew of Tomas Kaberle's face.
Bargaining: I already offered my soul for a Stanley Cup during game 4 in Montreal, but I reminded whoever it is that's taking me up on that offer that winning this game would help.
Depression:
Acceptance: I will not reach this stage until I drink enough $30 hotel white zinfandel to lose consciousness. Perhaps the saddest prospect of all.
Since I got back to our hotel room in Tampa, I've been alternating between anger and depression. I suspect this will continue until game 5.
As depressed/angry/drunk as I am, I don't believe we'll lose this series just because of this game. I hope the Bruins feel the same way.
April 17, 2011
Bruins/Habs: The First Two Games
I agree with Paula's points in her last post. Here are some more thoughts about what is happening in this series, and how to make it better.
First, some stats.
Bruins
GF: 5th GA: 2nd PP: 20th PK: 16th SV%: 1st
+51 goal differential
32.9 shots for/game (3rd) 32.7 SA/g (29th)
Montreal
GF: 21st GA: 8th PP: 7th PK: 7th SV%: 5th
+7 goal differential
31.7 SF/g (9th) 31 SA/g (18th)
Besides Montreal's odd disparity in shots for vs. goals for, all of this paints a very clear picture of these two teams. The Bruins are strong but somewhat reckless. We have the ability to kick the crap out of other teams, as is evident by our high goals for and goal differential.
The Bruins are known as a defensive team; however, the defense has struggled to move the puck all year. Chara and Seidenberg are high points. Johnny Boychuk ranges from our 2nd defenseman to the worst player on the ice, Ference does what he can, and Adam McQuaid's struggle with anxiety only sometimes works in our favor. We let up more shots than anyone but Carolina. Our low goals against is entirely due to Timmy.
This, coupled with our horrid special teams, is indicative of a disorganized team. All year the Bruins' biggest problem was mental. When they lost it was because they panicked and lost focus. One could often pinpoint the exact moment at which they freaked out. Going into the playoffs, I said I thought they had the ability to win the Stanley Cup, but that by no means meant they would.
I should explain now that I don't think PP and PK are as important as GF, GA, or SV%. The main reason I include those stats is because they reflect on the coach. There are limitations on every team, so a team can be stronger in one special team or the other and still have a decent coach. However, if a very strong team is in the bottom of the league in both categories, it is a sign that things are not running smoothly. On the other hand, if an otherwise mediocre team has very good special teams, it is a sign that the players are doing what the coach wants, and that the coach wants the right things.
Montreal can't score. They have some skill up front but overall their forwards are their weakness. Their strength is goaltending, defense, and special teams. Their low goal differential means that they only won games by a small margin. Going into this series, I believed we could steamroll over them simply by outscoring them. There was no way Montreal could keep up with our offense.
But there was something I didn't take into consideration: Jacques Martin knows all of this. All of it. His teams strengths, the Bruins weaknesses, both teams' style of play. He clearly studied numbers and video extensively, probably obsessively. He knew there was only one way his team could beat ours, and he figured out how to make sure the series was played exactly that way. What we've gotten is a low-scoring series and an emotionally fragile Bruins team that may be too traumatized by the first two games to recover.
This is what the Habs have been doing to make the Bruins look bad:
First, some stats.
Bruins
GF: 5th GA: 2nd PP: 20th PK: 16th SV%: 1st
+51 goal differential
32.9 shots for/game (3rd) 32.7 SA/g (29th)
Montreal
GF: 21st GA: 8th PP: 7th PK: 7th SV%: 5th
+7 goal differential
31.7 SF/g (9th) 31 SA/g (18th)
Besides Montreal's odd disparity in shots for vs. goals for, all of this paints a very clear picture of these two teams. The Bruins are strong but somewhat reckless. We have the ability to kick the crap out of other teams, as is evident by our high goals for and goal differential.
The Bruins are known as a defensive team; however, the defense has struggled to move the puck all year. Chara and Seidenberg are high points. Johnny Boychuk ranges from our 2nd defenseman to the worst player on the ice, Ference does what he can, and Adam McQuaid's struggle with anxiety only sometimes works in our favor. We let up more shots than anyone but Carolina. Our low goals against is entirely due to Timmy.
This, coupled with our horrid special teams, is indicative of a disorganized team. All year the Bruins' biggest problem was mental. When they lost it was because they panicked and lost focus. One could often pinpoint the exact moment at which they freaked out. Going into the playoffs, I said I thought they had the ability to win the Stanley Cup, but that by no means meant they would.
I should explain now that I don't think PP and PK are as important as GF, GA, or SV%. The main reason I include those stats is because they reflect on the coach. There are limitations on every team, so a team can be stronger in one special team or the other and still have a decent coach. However, if a very strong team is in the bottom of the league in both categories, it is a sign that things are not running smoothly. On the other hand, if an otherwise mediocre team has very good special teams, it is a sign that the players are doing what the coach wants, and that the coach wants the right things.
Montreal can't score. They have some skill up front but overall their forwards are their weakness. Their strength is goaltending, defense, and special teams. Their low goal differential means that they only won games by a small margin. Going into this series, I believed we could steamroll over them simply by outscoring them. There was no way Montreal could keep up with our offense.
But there was something I didn't take into consideration: Jacques Martin knows all of this. All of it. His teams strengths, the Bruins weaknesses, both teams' style of play. He clearly studied numbers and video extensively, probably obsessively. He knew there was only one way his team could beat ours, and he figured out how to make sure the series was played exactly that way. What we've gotten is a low-scoring series and an emotionally fragile Bruins team that may be too traumatized by the first two games to recover.
This is what the Habs have been doing to make the Bruins look bad:
- Chipping the puck over our heads into the neutral zone or deep into our zone. They do this a lot without icing the puck, meaning they practiced it. While that play gives us possession, it puts the puck in the hands of our de, who have had trouble making clean breakout passes all year. Montreal is doing this over and over again to test our de, and our de have mostly failed. Kaberle has suddenly lost the ability to move the puck, and Johnny Boy passes it to Plekanec more often than any Bruin. Seidenberg consistently makes plays no one else can, and Andrew Ference has had the most success carrying the puck up, but that still means 67% of our defensemen are terrifying and ineffective. Chara has an excuse. Kaberle does not.
- Collapsing down on our forwards the second they enter the offensive zone. This either forces a turnover or forces us to dump the puck in deep. Unlike the Bruins, the Habs defensemen are very strong, and their breakout is a thing of beauty when they have time and space.
- First and foremost, the de need to settle the fuck down. They can't expect the forwards to score if they can't keep the puck in the offensive zone and pass to the wrong team. As a former defensemen, I feel their plight, but I also know there is no place for fear in hockey. Work your hardest with every step and you'll have nothing to be nervous about.
- Close puck support. This is probably the biggest change in the system that needs to happen. Basically, the Bruins need to play more like Detroit. When a Red Wing loses the puck, the first player to get it is another Red Wing. Especially coming across the Habs' blue line, the Bruins should be right on top of one another. Nathan Horton isn't going to do any good breaking for the net if David Krejci skates alone into 3 Habs. If he skates into 3 Habs and is trailed by Milan Lucic, who can pick up the puck he loses and send it to Horton, that's another matter. Closely supporting the puck carrier also means they can make shorter passes, meaning fewer turnovers and more sustained puck possession. However, the only way this strategy is effective is if every player knows where their teammates are going, knows where they are supposed to be, and skates as hard as they can to get there.
- Forecheck. Their de need time to work their magic. We've had some success when we don't let them build momentum. Pressuring them also means they'll need to dish to their forwards sooner and more frequently, and like I said, their forwards are their weakness. We've won a lot of battles along the wall in the offensive zone, especially when our de pinch down early. We need to get the puck out of their defensemen's hands and then take it from their forwards.
- Generally, the Bruins have to move more in the offensive zone (themselves-- not just the puck). It's too easy for Carey Price to see and stop shots when they come from a stationary player. Instead of setting up in their zone and trying to force point shots when we clearly don't have shooting lanes, we need to keep moving throughout the zone. This automatically creates chances, as it spreads out their de and forces Price to scramble. They clog the slot, which has made things tricky for us. However, it also means there is more room to skate in the rest of the zone. We need to use that space. Standing still in the slot is only effective if we're about to shoot. Otherwise, keep moving. Help the forecheck. Pull a Brett Hull and wander around until you see an opportunity. Just keep swimming, guys.
- Entering the zone cleanly is another way to get movement in their zone. It's how we scored our only goal.
Playoffs 2011
I have more to say about the Bruins than the rest of the league, so this post will be quick. Here are my WRAP rankings for 2011.
1. Vancouver (1.25)
2. Boston (6.75)
3. Washington (8.50)
4. San Jose (9.25)
5. Philadelphia (9.50)
5. Pittsburgh (9.50)
7. NY Rangers (10.25)
8. Montreal (10.38)
9. Nashville (10.88)
9. Chicago (10.88)
11. Detroit (11.75)
12. Buffalo (12.00)
13. Tampa Bay (12.50)
14. Anaheim (12.63)
15. Los Angeles (12.88)
16. Phoenix (14.25)
Calgary was tied with Phoenix, but besides that these were the top teams in the league. My picks for the first round, and likely every round after this, will be based entirely on these numbers. Other stats are enlightening but mostly supplemental.
Vancouver's numbers are silly good. They're first in goals for, goals against, power play%, and their conference, and second in penalty kill% and save% (and only because Timmy had the league record). That means that on average, they are the best in everything. Their division was terrible and they beat the crap out of them, which inflated their numbers, but their numbers are still out of this world. The best team is rarely under 3; I've never seen a team under 2 at any point in any season. They'd have to have a total collapse to lose, but that's never out of the question for the Canucks.
I was surprised to see the Blackhawks and Rangers battling just to be in the playoffs. They've both been fairly strong teams all year, with good stats in many categories and high goal differential. Chicago is offense-heavy and lacks goaltending; the defensive Rangers would be nothing without Lundqvist. I don't expect either team to win their series, but with different matchups I might. Like I said, Vancouver would have to totally collapse to lose, and Washington is just a better version of the Rangers with untapped offensive upside. Both series should be interesting at the very least.
The Southwest is a joke, and I'm surprised Tampa Bay beat the Penguins at all, nevermind 5-1 in game 2. The difference is that Roloson stopped 35 of 36 shots, while Fleury stopped 16 of 20. That's not how either goaltender played during the regular season, and is not how they'll likely play for the rest of the playoffs.
I can't get too excited about any of these series when the Bruins one has gone like it has. Once they get a win under their belts I'll watch other teams.
1. Vancouver (1.25)
2. Boston (6.75)
3. Washington (8.50)
4. San Jose (9.25)
5. Philadelphia (9.50)
5. Pittsburgh (9.50)
7. NY Rangers (10.25)
8. Montreal (10.38)
9. Nashville (10.88)
9. Chicago (10.88)
11. Detroit (11.75)
12. Buffalo (12.00)
13. Tampa Bay (12.50)
14. Anaheim (12.63)
15. Los Angeles (12.88)
16. Phoenix (14.25)
Calgary was tied with Phoenix, but besides that these were the top teams in the league. My picks for the first round, and likely every round after this, will be based entirely on these numbers. Other stats are enlightening but mostly supplemental.
Vancouver's numbers are silly good. They're first in goals for, goals against, power play%, and their conference, and second in penalty kill% and save% (and only because Timmy had the league record). That means that on average, they are the best in everything. Their division was terrible and they beat the crap out of them, which inflated their numbers, but their numbers are still out of this world. The best team is rarely under 3; I've never seen a team under 2 at any point in any season. They'd have to have a total collapse to lose, but that's never out of the question for the Canucks.
I was surprised to see the Blackhawks and Rangers battling just to be in the playoffs. They've both been fairly strong teams all year, with good stats in many categories and high goal differential. Chicago is offense-heavy and lacks goaltending; the defensive Rangers would be nothing without Lundqvist. I don't expect either team to win their series, but with different matchups I might. Like I said, Vancouver would have to totally collapse to lose, and Washington is just a better version of the Rangers with untapped offensive upside. Both series should be interesting at the very least.
The Southwest is a joke, and I'm surprised Tampa Bay beat the Penguins at all, nevermind 5-1 in game 2. The difference is that Roloson stopped 35 of 36 shots, while Fleury stopped 16 of 20. That's not how either goaltender played during the regular season, and is not how they'll likely play for the rest of the playoffs.
I can't get too excited about any of these series when the Bruins one has gone like it has. Once they get a win under their belts I'll watch other teams.
The Worst Kind of Hangover
The Bruins have come too far this season to end it like this. They can't do this to me, they just can't. My head is throbbing, I feel physically ill and embarassed looking down at the spoked B on my shirt.
My observations over the first two games.
-They aren't taking advantage of their opportunities. The Habs handed them some golden chances. But pucks kept rolling off sticks, countless turnovers, and all-around sloppy play.
-Shots. While the Bruins are getting a ton of shots on net, almost 99.9999% of those shots are right smack into Carey Price. Come on. Any professional goaltender can save these shots. Price is by NO MEANS standing on his head. They NEED to crash the net and pepper Price with any sort of shot. With clear shooting lanes he WILL see the puck and thus, save said puck. This is NOT rocket science and I'm getting so angry thinking about it. Create traffic in front of Price, force him to cough up rebounds, and put the God damned puck in the net.
-The Habs know the key to win a game against us is to keep the scoring low- play defensively and expose our weakness; which right now, is mainly the defense, puck control and turnovers. Bruins defensemen are having an awfully hard time controlling the puck and the Habs know it. They've got our number. We need to change something. The Habs keep lofting the puck in the air, over the Bruins heads into the neutral zone and it messes up the flow and the Bruins have to start over. Rinse and repeat. This happens OVER and OVER. And over. I'm not really sure why they haven't altered their game plan. It seems like such a simple fix. They desperately need to control and possess the puck better and it all comes down to hard, clean passes.
-WTF Defense. Best quote I've heard on 98.5 The Sports Hub today, "If you're gonna play a defensive style, you gotta have good defensemen."
Chara- I'm not going to rip on the big guy. He was dehydrated..whatever.. just get him some water and get him back in the game. We need him; the Habs are scared of him.
Seidenberg- By far our best defensemen throughout this playoff series so far. But we can't rely on one guy to do everything and play the entire game; he will tire eventually. Also, he did have some turnovers but I forgive him because he's played better than any other d-man.
Kaberle- Is it too late to get Mark Stuart back? I kid, I kid. Kaberle needs to calm the heck down. Or something. He seems nervous; he either loses the puck at the point, makes some weird pass off the boards that ends up on a Hab's stick, or he just stands still with the puck and doesn't shoot or pass it. When we first got him, he was patient in a good way. He was calm, cool and collected. Now, he's just..not. I'm so confused by him so I'm just going to leave it at that.
Ference- Inconsistency at it's finest. Made some good plays in Game 2, stepped up when he needed to but produced nothing. He's a smart guy. Tries to do the right things but perhaps is lacking in the skill department. Also, its a problem when I praise him for getting a shot thats relatively close to the net (i.e. 3-5 ft radius)due to his awful aim.
Boychuk- He's a mess. Trust me, I love the hip checks and open ice hits as much as the next guy. But what in tarnation has happened to Johnny Boychuk? Whenever he's at the point, I expect failure now. I am pleasantly surprised if he keeps it in at the point. He didn't have this problem in the regular season. He's scrambling around, his passes are sloppy and rushed. Leads to turnovers. Had a turnover then tried to redeem himself...by covering the wrong guy. He covers the wrong guy in front of the net almost always- and leaves another player open who ultimately gets a scoring chance. I'm so disappointed in his game and he seems like such a good guy; He has a lot of heart and I'm really pulling for Boychuk. I hope he doesn't become emotionally unstable like my next target.
McQuaid- Poor Adam. He looks terrified during warmups, while on the bench, and during the game. And terrified is how I feel when I see him at the point. He's such a tough guy sometimes...stands up for teammates and uses his strength but it seems like he's been lacking in this series.
Hnidy- Played like..4 minutes last night and got into a fight. But I respect the Hell out of him for it. His heart's in the right place-- even if he is never in the right place on the ice.
All negativity aside, for now at least, I have hope for this team. They ARE talented despite what some people may think. They ARE better than the Habs. They are in a bigger hole than they think they are. But they can do it. I know they can. But will they? We'll see. And whether they win Game 3, or end up facing elimination in Game 4...you know I'll be on the edge of my seat no matter what, hoping and praying for a miracle.
My observations over the first two games.
-They aren't taking advantage of their opportunities. The Habs handed them some golden chances. But pucks kept rolling off sticks, countless turnovers, and all-around sloppy play.
-Shots. While the Bruins are getting a ton of shots on net, almost 99.9999% of those shots are right smack into Carey Price. Come on. Any professional goaltender can save these shots. Price is by NO MEANS standing on his head. They NEED to crash the net and pepper Price with any sort of shot. With clear shooting lanes he WILL see the puck and thus, save said puck. This is NOT rocket science and I'm getting so angry thinking about it. Create traffic in front of Price, force him to cough up rebounds, and put the God damned puck in the net.
-The Habs know the key to win a game against us is to keep the scoring low- play defensively and expose our weakness; which right now, is mainly the defense, puck control and turnovers. Bruins defensemen are having an awfully hard time controlling the puck and the Habs know it. They've got our number. We need to change something. The Habs keep lofting the puck in the air, over the Bruins heads into the neutral zone and it messes up the flow and the Bruins have to start over. Rinse and repeat. This happens OVER and OVER. And over. I'm not really sure why they haven't altered their game plan. It seems like such a simple fix. They desperately need to control and possess the puck better and it all comes down to hard, clean passes.
-WTF Defense. Best quote I've heard on 98.5 The Sports Hub today, "If you're gonna play a defensive style, you gotta have good defensemen."
Chara- I'm not going to rip on the big guy. He was dehydrated..whatever.. just get him some water and get him back in the game. We need him; the Habs are scared of him.
Seidenberg- By far our best defensemen throughout this playoff series so far. But we can't rely on one guy to do everything and play the entire game; he will tire eventually. Also, he did have some turnovers but I forgive him because he's played better than any other d-man.
Kaberle- Is it too late to get Mark Stuart back? I kid, I kid. Kaberle needs to calm the heck down. Or something. He seems nervous; he either loses the puck at the point, makes some weird pass off the boards that ends up on a Hab's stick, or he just stands still with the puck and doesn't shoot or pass it. When we first got him, he was patient in a good way. He was calm, cool and collected. Now, he's just..not. I'm so confused by him so I'm just going to leave it at that.
Ference- Inconsistency at it's finest. Made some good plays in Game 2, stepped up when he needed to but produced nothing. He's a smart guy. Tries to do the right things but perhaps is lacking in the skill department. Also, its a problem when I praise him for getting a shot thats relatively close to the net (i.e. 3-5 ft radius)due to his awful aim.
Boychuk- He's a mess. Trust me, I love the hip checks and open ice hits as much as the next guy. But what in tarnation has happened to Johnny Boychuk? Whenever he's at the point, I expect failure now. I am pleasantly surprised if he keeps it in at the point. He didn't have this problem in the regular season. He's scrambling around, his passes are sloppy and rushed. Leads to turnovers. Had a turnover then tried to redeem himself...by covering the wrong guy. He covers the wrong guy in front of the net almost always- and leaves another player open who ultimately gets a scoring chance. I'm so disappointed in his game and he seems like such a good guy; He has a lot of heart and I'm really pulling for Boychuk. I hope he doesn't become emotionally unstable like my next target.
McQuaid- Poor Adam. He looks terrified during warmups, while on the bench, and during the game. And terrified is how I feel when I see him at the point. He's such a tough guy sometimes...stands up for teammates and uses his strength but it seems like he's been lacking in this series.
Hnidy- Played like..4 minutes last night and got into a fight. But I respect the Hell out of him for it. His heart's in the right place-- even if he is never in the right place on the ice.
All negativity aside, for now at least, I have hope for this team. They ARE talented despite what some people may think. They ARE better than the Habs. They are in a bigger hole than they think they are. But they can do it. I know they can. But will they? We'll see. And whether they win Game 3, or end up facing elimination in Game 4...you know I'll be on the edge of my seat no matter what, hoping and praying for a miracle.
March 20, 2011
Matt Cooke, Enough is Enough.
I'm actually starting to be a bit concerned about Matt Cooke. I hope the Pittsburgh Penguins doctor is hard at work diagnosing him. Cooke must have some sort of rare medical condition that doesn't allow him to put his elbows down, right? Why else would his elbows be constantly raised and aimed at player's heads? All jokes aside, this is a serious, serious issue. Cooke was up to his old tricks again today when he decided to elbow Ryan McDonagh of the New York Rangers. He is one of the dirtiest, cheapest players in the league. Someone NEEDS to teach Cooke a lesson. Clearly getting KO'd by an Evander Kane punch last year wasn't enough to put an end to Cooke's shenanigans.
Although the league has recently been working hard to prevent these type of cheap shots, they really need to take action when it comes to Cooke. I mean the guy pretty much single handedly- (err..single-elbowedly? single-shoulderedly?), ended Savard's season and received zero punishment. The guy is KNOWN for being one of the most despicably cheap and cowardly players in the league.. yet for some reason, he never seems to get enough punishment. When is enough enough?
Let's take a look back at some of Cooke's handiwork..shall we?
February 7, 2011
Head Shots and Headaches
Where do I even begin? First and foremost, I want to make it clear that I stand behind the NHL's (better late than never) crack-down on head shots. Randy Jones' hit on Bergeron resulted in one of the scariest injuries I've ever witnessed in a sporting event. It took Bergeron an entire season (and then some) to regain his skill. Then last year was the hit on Savard by Matt Cooke. Fast foward to this season, and Savard has his second concussion courtesy of former Bruin Matt Hunwick. Now Savvy is dunzo for the remainder of the season and postseason. Last week in a game against the Dallas Stars, B's foward Daniel Paille delivered an illegal hit on Ray Sawada. I was at the game and couldn't make my own decision on how dirty the hit was until I went home and watched the replays. It was a bad hit. Do I think it was intentional? No. But it could have been avoided. The NHL needs to be consistent; I understand that. However, being that it was Paille's first offense of that nature, I think a FOUR game suspension was a little dramatic. (Sean Avery receieved a 6-game suspension by the League for his distasteful-- yet hilarious, comments about an ex-girlfriend) Paille has since contacted Sawada and apologized, which was definitely the right move. I think Paille did what he needed to do; and I'm pretty sure the 4-game suspension was more than enough punishment and he feels bad enough. Right? Wrong. Enter, Andrew Ference.
Let me preface thisi by saying, Ference has been known to cause rifts in the dressing room in the past due to NHLPA-related issues and I ignored it, because quite frankly, those type of shenanigans bore me. But following the game against the Stars, Ference was very quick to talk to the media and he sort of threw Paille under the bus. He explains how he can't be a hypocrite and how sensitive the Bruins are to head shots. I understand that, and it makes sense. But Ference should have waited to comment to the media until he spoke to Paille first. I think team chemistry is extremely important- especially during this stretch of games at the midway point of the season.
As Don Cherry stated, “I don’t care if your teammate is an ax murderer. What you’ve got to say to the guy, you tell him in the dressing room. You tell him that was a dirty hit. You never go to the press".
And to be honest, I think this DID cause a problem in the locker room. In their last game, they came out flat, couldn't clear their own zone, they were sloppy in the neutral zone and most importantly couldn't even connect on passes. Ference should have kept his mouth shut on the matter- or at the very least spoken to Paille first, then explained to the press his feelings. There was no need to throw a teammate under the bus, full well knowing a suspension was going to come anyway.
I hope Wednesday's game against the Habs can help the B's find their chemistry again.
Let me preface thisi by saying, Ference has been known to cause rifts in the dressing room in the past due to NHLPA-related issues and I ignored it, because quite frankly, those type of shenanigans bore me. But following the game against the Stars, Ference was very quick to talk to the media and he sort of threw Paille under the bus. He explains how he can't be a hypocrite and how sensitive the Bruins are to head shots. I understand that, and it makes sense. But Ference should have waited to comment to the media until he spoke to Paille first. I think team chemistry is extremely important- especially during this stretch of games at the midway point of the season.
As Don Cherry stated, “I don’t care if your teammate is an ax murderer. What you’ve got to say to the guy, you tell him in the dressing room. You tell him that was a dirty hit. You never go to the press".
And to be honest, I think this DID cause a problem in the locker room. In their last game, they came out flat, couldn't clear their own zone, they were sloppy in the neutral zone and most importantly couldn't even connect on passes. Ference should have kept his mouth shut on the matter- or at the very least spoken to Paille first, then explained to the press his feelings. There was no need to throw a teammate under the bus, full well knowing a suspension was going to come anyway.
I hope Wednesday's game against the Habs can help the B's find their chemistry again.
January 29, 2011
October 5, 2010
October..finally.
Well, to be honest I've only vaguely thought about this blog a few times since...well, the last post. I was so carefree, so happy, so...hopeful. Then everything came crashing down. I didn't think it could happen again, I didn't think it would happen again. You know? The crushing defeat was like a blow to the head or an Exacto knife to the heart. I'm not just being dramatic because that's how it felt. Sitting in section 314, row 9...seats 1 and 2. Bear Hat activated. We were up 3-0. Three to nothing. And then...we weren't. An epic collapse, a choke, whatever the headlines said. The fair-weather, pink-hat, bandwagoners could say whatever they wanted. But that night in the Garden, I truly believe some hearts were broken. Or at the very least, cracked for awhile. That's why I couldn't face this blog. I didn't want to relive that 60 minutes.
Last season was the definition of a rollercoaster ride. The ups and downs provided some shortlived thrills and cheers; but ultimately ended in nausea and sickness. The reason for that was the consistent inconsistency. (Not to mention the inability to score goals) This summer felt long. Too long. I've waited impatiently for the puck to drop on the 2010-2011 season.
I can't make any sort of predictions now..because it's clearly way too early for any of that. All I can say is...I'm excited. I'm ready to put last season's debacle in the past and turn the page.
Lastly, I will ask some questions to be answered later in the season.
-Where will Tyler Seguin fit in?
-Has Tuukka permanently secured the number one spot in net?
-Will Michael Ryder score a goal?
-Will Blake Wheeler not fall everytime he touches the ice?
-Will I miss Dennis Wideman?
Last season was the definition of a rollercoaster ride. The ups and downs provided some shortlived thrills and cheers; but ultimately ended in nausea and sickness. The reason for that was the consistent inconsistency. (Not to mention the inability to score goals) This summer felt long. Too long. I've waited impatiently for the puck to drop on the 2010-2011 season.
I can't make any sort of predictions now..because it's clearly way too early for any of that. All I can say is...I'm excited. I'm ready to put last season's debacle in the past and turn the page.
Lastly, I will ask some questions to be answered later in the season.
-Where will Tyler Seguin fit in?
-Has Tuukka permanently secured the number one spot in net?
-Will Michael Ryder score a goal?
-Will Blake Wheeler not fall everytime he touches the ice?
-Will I miss Dennis Wideman?
April 29, 2010
Stop Numero Dos of Playoff Debauchery
Well, this should be interesting. The faithful fans of the Black & Gold eagerly awaited the second round, expecting to see a matchup between the B's and Pittsburgh. Well, not so fast. Because Montreal pulled off a HUGE upset last night- stunning Team Ovechkin and knocking them into an early summer vacation. So now, the B's are set to take on the gritty, hardnosed (but mostly downright annoying) Flyers. Luckily, we have home advantage- so hopefully the B's can get a big win come Saturday's matinee at 12:30.
The Flyers are missing three important forwards- Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne and Ian Laperriere. The Bruins are welcoming back Savard. Don't get too excited yet folks because I have a feeling its going to take Savvy a bit of time to get back into the swing of things. He said so himself, that he doesn't expect himself to be an immediate hero. However, I think he's been itching to get back into the lineup and when he's motivated, he's successful.
That's all for now; I will add to this later after thoroughly analyzing the Flyers.
See Ya
Can't spell OVECHKIN without CHOKE. Choked by the Habs. Choked in the Olympics. Lucky for Ovie, he'll get another shot with team Russia in the World Championships. haha. Peace out, bro.
April 27, 2010
And after 22 years...
I watch Ray win the Cup at least once a week and get weepy every time, so it's no big shock that this commercial makes me bawl my eyes out.
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